The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
5. It may be objected that such an explanation as
the above does not really amount to anything deserving
of the name, for that instead of explaining how a particular
state of things is caused it merely points out that the
same state exists elsewhere. There is a uniformity discovered
in the objects at the stage when they are commonly
submitted to calculation; we then grope about
amongst the causes of them, and after all only discover
a precisely similar uniformity existing amongst these causes.
This is to some extent true, for though part of the objection
can be removed, it must always remain the case that the
foundations of an objective science will rest in the last resort
upon the mere fact that things are found to be of such and
such a character.
6. This division, into objects and the agencies which
affect them, is merely intended for a rough practical arrangement,
sufficient to point out to the reader the immediate
nature of the causes which bring about our familiar
uniformities. If we go back a step further, it might fairly
be maintained that they may be reduced to one, namely,
to the agencies. The objects, as we have termed them,
are not an original creation in the state in which we now
find them. No one supposes that whole groups or classes
were brought into existence simultaneously, with all their
general resemblances and particular differences fully developed.
Even if it were the case that the first parents
of each natural kind had been specially created, instead
of being developed out of pre-existing forms, it would still
be true that amongst the numbers of each that now present
themselves the characteristic differences and resemblances
are the result of what we have termed agencies. Take, for
instance, a single characteristic only, say the height; what
determines this as we find it in any given group of men?
Partly, no doubt, the nature of their own food, clothing,
employment, and so on, especially in the earliest years of
their life; partly also, very likely, similar conditions and
circumstances on the part of their parents at one time or
another. No one, I presume, in the present state of knowledge,
would attempt to enumerate the remaining causes,
or even to give any indication of their exact nature; but
at the same time few would entertain any doubt that
agencies of this general description have been the determining
causes at work.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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