The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
15. It may be replied that if we extend our observations,
say to the houses of a large city, we shall then detect
the property under discussion. The different heights of a
great number, when grouped together, might be found to
resemble those of a great number of human beings under
similar treatment. Something of this kind might not improbably
be found to be the case, though the resemblance
would be far from being a close one. But to raise this
question is to get on to different ground, for we were
speaking (as remarked above) not of the work of different
minds with their different aims, but of that of one mind.
In a multiplicity of designs, there may be that variable uniformity,
for which we may look in vain in a single design.
The heights which the _different_ builders contemplated
might be found to group themselves into something of the
same kind of uniformity as that which prevails in most
other things which they should undertake to do independently.
We might then trace the action of the same two
conditions,--a uniformity in the multitude of their different
designs, a uniformity also in the infinite variety of the
influences which have modified those designs. But this is a
very different thing from saying that the work of one man
will show such a result as this. The difference is much like
that between the tread of a thousand men who are stepping
without thinking of each other, and their tread when they
are drilled into a regiment. In the former case there is
the working, in one way or another, of a thousand minds;
in the latter, of one only.
The investigations of this and the former chapter
constitute a sufficiently close examination into the detailed
causes by which the peculiar form of statistical results with
which we are concerned is actually produced, to serve the
purpose of a work which is occupied mainly with the _methods_
of the Science of Probability. The great importance, however,
of certain statistical or sociological enquiries will demand
a recurrence in a future chapter to one particular
application of these statistics, viz. to those concerned with
some classes of human actions.
16. The only important addition to, or modification of,
the foregoing remarks which I have found occasion to make
is due to Mr Galton. He has recently pointed out,--and was
I believe the first to do so,--that in certain cases some
analysis of the causal processes can be effected, and is in fact
absolutely necessary in order to account for the facts observed.
Take, for instance, the _heights_ of the population of
any country. If the distribution or dispersion of these about
their mean value were left to the unimpeded action of those
myriad productive agencies alluded to above, we should certainly
obtain such an arrangement in the posterity of any
one generation as had already been exhibited in the parents.
That is, we should find repeated in the previous stage the
same kind of order as we were trying to account for in the
following stage.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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