The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
To a certain extent we must admit the validity of the
principle for the purpose. In the case of the throws given
above, it would be valid to prove the equal frequency of (1)
and (3) and also of (2) and (4); for there is no difference
existing between these pairs except what is introduced by our
own notation.[3] TH is the same as HT, except in the order
of the occurrence of the symbols H and T, which we do not
take into account. But either of the pair (1) and (3) _is_
different from either of the pair (2) and (4). Transpose the
notation, and there would still remain here a distinction which
the mind can recognize. A succession of the same thing
twice running is distinguished from the conjunction of two
different things, by a distinction which does not depend
upon our arbitrary notation only, and would remain entirely
unaltered by a change in this notation. The principle therefore
of Sufficient Reason, if admitted, would only prove that
doublets of the two kinds, for example (2) and (4), occur
equally often, but it would not prove that they must each
occur once in four times. It cannot be proved indeed in this
way that they need ever occur at all.
9. The formula, then, not being demonstrable _à priori_,
(as might have been concluded,) can it be obtained by experience?
To a certain extent it can; the present experience
of mankind in pence and dice seems to show that the smaller
successions of throws do really occur in about the proportions
assigned by the theory. But how nearly they do so no one
can say, for the amount of time and trouble to be expended
before we could feel that we have verified the fact, even for
small numbers, is very great, whilst for large numbers it
would be simply intolerable. The experiment of throwing
often enough to obtain 'heads ten times' has been actually
performed by two or three persons, and the results are given
by De Morgan, and Jevons.[4] This, however, being only
sufficient on the average to give 'heads ten times' a single
chance, the evidence is very slight; it would take a considerable
number of such experiments to set the matter
nearly at rest.
Any such rule, then, as that which we have just been
discussing, which professes to describe what will take place
in a long succession of throws, is only conclusively proved by
experience within very narrow limits, that is, for small repetitions
of the same face; within limits less narrow, indeed,
we feel assured that the rule cannot be flagrantly in error,
otherwise the variation would be almost sure to be detected.
From this we feel strongly inclined to infer that the same
law will hold throughout. In other words, we are inclined
to extend the rule by Induction and Analogy. Still there
are so many instances in nature of proposed laws which hold
within narrow limits but get egregiously astray when we
attempt to push them to great lengths, that we must give at
best but a qualified assent to the truth of the formula.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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