Every scientist worthy of the name has at one time or another said
something like the following: “The only thing we positively know about
a hypothesis is that it is to a certain extent wrong. Progress is made
by gradually substituting the less erroneous for the more erroneous,
until the hypothesis is finally established in a modified form as a
fact, or becomes so untenable that it must be abandoned altogether. In
either case, it has served its turn.” Thus Darwin, true scientist that
he was, characterized his theories as to the descent of man as “highly
speculative,” adding, “Some will no doubt prove erroneous.”[98]
The ideal scientist, therefore, never becomes dogmatic, never cocksure.
He knows that though Truth be not relative, Knowledge is. He forever
deals with conclusions which are highly tentative, and constantly
waits for that appeal to experience which will reveal his mistakes.
Unfortunately, scientists are but men, and the ideal scientist no more
exists than does the ideal Christian. Only those whose specialties keep
them constantly close to experience remain truly scientific for any
length of time--which is one of the reasons why most of our progress
has been made in physics and chemistry.
Francis Bacon, who is generally credited with having first put science
upon the firm ground of inductive reasoning, or generalizing from
observed particulars, says in his _Novum Organum_:[99] “Having first
determined the question according to his will, man then resorts to
experience; and bending her into conformity ... leads her about like a
captive in a procession.”
How well Bacon understood our human nature’s proneness to determine
questions according to its will, and then to bend experience to fit
the occasion! But he did not call this method the scientific method.
On the contrary, he described it as one of those “Idols of the Tribe,”
or habits leading to error, to which everybody is subject. And he only
_hoped_ that science would avoid it as much as possible.
True science has avoided it--as much as possible. But how little
true science we have! The experimental method is so limited in its
application that there are few matters important to human life which
can be put to the test of immediate experience. We must wait long
years for experience in general to tell its tale, and even then its
conclusions are not always convincing. To be convincing, experience
must take place under conditions of our own contriving, every unknown
influence eliminated. And the experience must be repeated time and
again. The field of true science is, therefore, one of the narrowest in
the world. Much that goes by the name of science is but semi-science,
pseudo-science, false science, or no science at all.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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