If we yield to this feeling, we are guilty of moral cowardice, and we vitiate all the results of all our labors. We _must_ make a correct estimate of the situation--or rather we must estimate the situation to be as grave as it is--or our preparations will be of no avail. If we estimate the situation too gravely, we may spend more money and time on our preparations than is quite needed, and our preparations may be more than adequate. It may be that the preparations which Prussia made before 1870 for war with France were more than adequate. In fact, it looks as if they were, in view of the extreme quickness with which she conquered France. But does any military writer condemn Prussia for having made assurance too sure? _The Value of Superadequate Preparation_.--No, on the contrary. The very reasons that make adequate preparation valuable make superadequate preparation even more valuable. The reason is very clear, as is shown by the table on page 284 illustrating the progressive wasting of fighting forces, which the writer published in the _U. S. Naval Institute_ in an essay called "American Naval Policy," in April, 1905.[*] [Footnote *: I have recently been informed that Lieutenant (now Commander) J. V. Chase, U. S. N., arrived at practically the same results in 1902 by an application of the calculus; and that he submitted them to the U. S. Naval War College in a paper headed, "Sea Fights: A Mathematical Investigation of the Effect of Superiority of Force in."--B. A. F.] TABLE I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.|Col.| | | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------| |Value of offensive power A|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000|1000| | at beginning B|1000| 900| 800| 700| 600| 500| 400| 300| 200| 100| |Damage done in 1st A| 100| 100| 100| 100| 100| 100| 100| 100| 100| 100| | period B| 100| 90| 80| 70| 60| 50| 40| 30| 20| 10| |Value of offensive power A| 900| 910| 920| 930| 940| 950| 960| 970| 980| 990| | at end of 1st period B| 900| 800| 700| 600| 500| 400| 300| 200| 100| 0| |Damage done in 2nd A| 90| 91| 92| 93| 94| 95| 96| 97| 98| | | period B| 90| 80| 70| 60| 50| 40| 30| 20| 10| | |Value of offensive power A| 810| 830| 850| 870| 890| 910| 930| 950| 970| | | at end of 2nd period B| 810| 709| 608| 507| 406| 305| 204| 103| 2| | |Damage done in 3rd A| 81| 83| 85| 87| 89| 91| 93| 95| | | | period B| 81| 71| 61| 51| 41| 31| 20| 10| | | |Value of offensive power A| 729| 759| 789| 819| 849| 879| 910| 940| | | | at end of 3rd period B| 729| 626| 523| 420| 317| 214| 111| 8| | |