The difficulty would be insoluble if chance had not laws of its own.
It was Maxwell who first thought of introducing into the kinetic
theory the calculation of probabilities. Willard Gibbs and Boltzmann
later on developed this idea, and have founded a statistical method
which does not, perhaps, give absolute certainty, but which is
certainly most interesting and curious. Molecules are grouped in such
a way that those belonging to the same group may be considered as
having the same state of movement; then an examination is made of the
number of molecules in each group, and what are the changes in this
number from one moment to another. It is thus often possible to
determine the part which the different groups have in the total
properties of the system and in the phenomena which may occur.
Such a method, analogous to the one employed by statisticians for
following the social phenomena in a population, is all the more
legitimate the greater the number of individuals counted in the
averages; now, the number of molecules contained in a limited space--
for example, in a centimetre cube taken in normal conditions--is such
that no population could ever attain so high a figure. All
considerations, those we have indicated as well as others which might
be invoked (for example, the recent researches of M. Spring on the
limit of visibility of fluorescence), give this result:--that there
are, in this space, some twenty thousand millions of molecules. Each
of these must receive in the space of a millimetre about ten thousand
shocks, and be ten thousand times thrust out of its course. The free
path of a molecule is then very small, but it can be singularly
augmented by diminishing the number of them. Tait and Dewar have
calculated that, in a good modern vacuum, the length of the free path
of the remaining molecules not taken away by the air-pump easily
reaches a few centimetres.
By developing this theory, we come to consider that, for a given
temperature, every molecule (and even every individual particle, atom,
or ion) which takes part in the movement has, on the average, the same
kinetic energy in every body, and that this energy is proportional to
the absolute temperature; so that it is represented by this
temperature multiplied by a constant quantity which is a universal
constant.
This result is not an hypothesis but a very great probability. This
probability increases when it is noted that the same value for the
constant is met with in the study of very varied phenomena; for
example, in certain theories on radiation. Knowing the mass and energy
of a molecule, it is easy to calculate its speed; and we find that the
average speed is about 400 metres per second for carbonic anhydride,
500 for nitrogen, and 1850 for hydrogen at 0° C. and at ordinary
pressure. I shall have occasion, later on, to speak of much more
considerable speeds than these as animating other particles.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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