The New York Times Current History of the European War, Vol. 1, January 9, 1915: What Americans Say to EuropeVarious
Philosophy
The New York Times Current History of the European War, Vol. 1, January 9, 1915: What Americans Say to Europe
Various
World War, 1914-1918
We repeat that since the necessities of Europe have forced her to buy
our food in return for her investments, it is evident that during the
war food prices will be high and security prices, especially bonds, will
be low. These are the two facts of greatest economic significance to us.
To the country as a whole they defer some of our pleasures till after
the war. Uncle Sam will cut down for the present on his eating and
drinking, his clothes, shelter, and amusements in order to share his
rations with Europe. Instead of the pleasures foregone he will
invest--not in new enterprises at home, but in old ones--American and
possibly European also--purchased of Europe. We can never have our cake
and eat it too. In this case we shall let Europe eat some of it on
condition that she in turn shares hers with us after the war. Moreover,
we shall trade off a relatively small piece of our present cake for a
relatively large piece of Europe's future cake. In other words, Europe
will fill up the great breach in her income now impending by inducing us
to make a small breach in ours. The result will be that the course of
our real income, that is, economic satisfaction or enjoyable
consumption, will imitate in some degree that of Europe. This is,
reduced to its lowest terms, the chief economic result of the war.
But to many the question is, do we gain or lose, as compared with what
might have been the case if there had been no war? I do not think any
one can answer that question with certainty. Europe is willing to
mortgage its future to us on terms very advantageous to us; but when the
future comes, the purchasing power of money will probably be so much
lessened as to have absorbed all our advantage. Probably we shall lose
slightly on the whole. But it is not economically impossible that there
will be a net gain. In either case the net effect will, I believe, be
small.
Of more importance will be the various effects on various classes.
Certain people will be greatly benefited by the rise in food prices and
the fall in security prices. The farming classes will profit by the
former; the investing classes by the latter. Those who have the good
fortune to belong to both classes will grow rich. The farmer who is in a
position to save money will both make more money to save and be able to
invest it more advantageously after he has saved it. If he lends to his
neighbors he will find the market rate of interest high. Even if he buys
more land the purchase price will be restrained from the great rise we
might expect from the prosperity of farming by the fact that the "number
of years purchase," as the phrase is in England, will be small, or, in
other words, that the interest basis, which enters into every land
price, will be high.
Labor Will Not Suffer Much.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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