"Again," said T. B. emphatically, "for the fourth time this year. I've just seen one of the Stock Exchange Committee, and he's in a terrible state of mind. Stocks and shares are nothing to me," the Commissioner went on, seeing the patient boredom on the other's face, "and I know there is a fairly well-defined law that governs the condition of the Stock Exchange. Prices go see-sawing up and down, and that is part of the day's work, but for the fourth time, and for no apparent reason, the market is broken. Consols are down to 84." "I once had some shares in an American copper mine," reflected Elk, "and a disinterested stock-jobber advised me to hold on to them; I'm still holding, but it never occurred to me--I lost £500--that it was a matter for police investigation." The Commissioner stopped in his walk and looked at the detective. "There's little romance in finance," he mused, "but there is something behind all this; do you remember the break of January 4?" Elk nodded; he saw there was a police side to this slump, and grew alert and knowledgeable. "Yankees and gilt-edged American stock came tumbling down as though their financial foundations had been dug away. What was the cause?" Elk thought. "Wasn't it the suicide of the President of the Eleventh National Bank?" he asked. "Happened after the crash," said T. B. promptly. "Do you remember the extraordinary slump in Russian Fours in April--a slump which, like the drop in Yankees, affected every market? What was the cause?" "The attempt on the Czar." "Again you're wrong," said the other; "the slump anticipated the attempt; it did not follow it. Then we have the business of the 9th of August." "The Kaffir slump?" "Yes." "But, surely, the reason for that may be traced," said Elk; "it followed the decision of the Cabinet to abolish coloured labour in the mines." "It anticipated it," corrected his chief, with a twinkle in his eye, "and do you remember no other occurrence that filled the public mind about that time?" Elk thought with knit brows. "There was the airship disaster at the palace. Hike Mills was put away just about then for blackmail; there was the Vermont case--and the Sud Express wreck----" "That's it," said the Commissioner, "wrecked outside Valladolid; three killed, many injured--do you remember who was killed?" "Yes," said Elk slowly, "a Frenchman, whose name I've forgotten; Mr. Arthur Saintsbury, a King's Messenger--by George!" The connection dawned upon him, and T. B. grinned. "Killed whilst carrying despatches to the King of Portugal," he said. "Those despatches related to the proposed withdrawal of native labour--much of which is recruited in Portuguese West Africa." He paused a moment, and added as an afterthought, "His despatch-box was never found." There was silence. "You suggest?" said Elk suddenly. "I suggest there is an intelligent anticipator in existence who is much too intelligent to be at large." The Commissioner walked to the door.