The Philosophy of Health; Volume 1 (of 2): or, an exposition of the physical and mental constitution of manSmith, Southwood
Philosophy
The Philosophy of Health; Volume 1 (of 2): or, an exposition of the physical and mental constitution of man
Smith, Southwood
Hygiene; Physiology
2. PROBABILITY OF LIFE; or _the probable duration of life_, _la vie
probable_. These are synonymous terms, in use chiefly among continental
writers as an expression of the comparative duration of life. The
tabular methods of setting forth the duration of life consist, for the
most part, in assuming that 10,000 infants are born; and that at the
age of one, two, three, and each successive year of life, there are
so many still remaining in existence. Fix on any age; observe what
number remain alive to commence that age; note at what age this number
decreases to one-half; the age at which they so come to one-half is
called the probable term of life; because, say the continental writers,
it is an equal wager whether a person shall or shall not be alive at
that period. Thus, suppose one thousand males commence together the age
of eighty-four; suppose the table indicate that there will be alive
at the age of eighty-five, 817; at the age of eighty-six, 648; at the
age of eighty-seven, 493; at the age of eighty-eight, 357, and so on.
In the present case, the probable duration of life at eighty-four is
said to be very nearly three years, because, at the age of eighty-seven
there are left alive 493, very nearly one-half of the thousand that
originally started together.
3. VALUE OF LIFE. This term, when used accurately, expresses the
duration of life as measured by one or other of the methods already
expounded. But it is sometimes popularly used in a loose and singularly
inaccurate sense. Thus it is very commonly said—"Such a man's life
is not worth ten years' purchase," which is the same thing as to say,
that an annuity, suppose a hundred pounds a year, payable during the
life of the person in question, is not worth ten times its magnitude,
that is one thousand pounds. If a thousand pounds be put into a bank
at some rate of interest to be agreed upon, and if a hundred pounds be
drawn every year from the stock, the expression under consideration
affirms that the person in question will be dead before the principal
and interest are exhausted. For instance, at four per cent., the value
of an annuity of one hundred pounds to a man of the age of twenty-five
is 1694_l._, which is 16-9/10 years' purchase; whereas, his expectation
of life at that age is 35-9/10 years.
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