The Popular Science Monthly, June, 1900: Vol. 57, May, 1900 to October, 1900Various
Science
The Popular Science Monthly, June, 1900: Vol. 57, May, 1900 to October, 1900
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
of all times. The work was never carried on to completion, so that
the final selection of the names, and particularly their use in the
present connection, must rest on my sole responsibility. I mention
these facts mainly to indicate the general representative character
of the list which I used. I take from my previously published article
the following essential facts: Omitting all doubtful names, about two
hundred and fifty names remain, presenting a list which most persons
would agree to be fairly representative of the greatest men of all
times. Of these again I selected _at random_ those about whom it was
easiest to fix the age at which they had done work which would entitle
them to a place on this list, or work which almost inevitably led to
such distinction. It is a date about midway between the first important
work and the greatest work. The average of over sixty such ages is
thirty-seven years; which means that, on the average, a man must be
thirty-seven years old in order to be a candidate for a place on this
list. The real question, then, is, How does the longevity of this
select class of thirty-seven-year-old men compare with that of more
ordinary individuals? The answer is given by the expectation of life
at thirty-seven years, which is twenty-nine years, making the average
age at death sixty-six years. And this is precisely the age at death of
these sixty great men; showing that, as a class (for these sixty may be
considered a fair sample) great men are not distinguished by longevity
from other men.
It will thus be seen that my own conclusion is entirely opposed to
that of Mr. Thayer. But this opposition rests not upon a difference
of data, but upon a difference of logic. To my mind the enumeration of
ages at death of any number of great men cannot prove unusual longevity
unless we take into consideration and can determine the number of years
which, on the average, a person must have lived in order to become a
candidate for the class under consideration. The comparison with the
average age (that is, the period of about thirty-five or more years)
is not only false; it is essentially absurd; for it would become
possible only if we had among poets, and painters, and musicians, and
historians, and scientists, and generals a goodly number who succumbed
to the diseases of early infancy, or to some of the ills that juvenile
flesh is heir to.
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