The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
In the variety of logical relations, which may exist between a certain
number of logical terms, we also meet a case of higher combinations.
We have seen (p. 142) that with only six terms the number of possible
selections of combinations is 18,446,744,073,709,551,616. Considering
that it is the most common thing in the world to use an argument
involving six objects or terms, it may excite some surprise that the
complete investigation of the relations in which six such terms may
stand to each other, should involve an almost inconceivable number of
cases. Yet these numbers of possible logical relations belong only to
the second order of combinations.
CHAPTER X.
THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY.
The subject upon which we now enter must not be regarded as an isolated
and curious branch of speculation. It is the necessary basis of the
judgments we make in the prosecution of science, or the decisions we
come to in the conduct of ordinary affairs. As Butler truly said,
“Probability is the very guide of life.” Had the science of numbers
been studied for no other purpose, it must have been developed for
the calculation of probabilities. All our inferences concerning the
future are merely probable, and a due appreciation of the degree of
probability depends upon a comprehension of the principles of the
subject. I am convinced that it is impossible to expound the methods of
induction in a sound manner, without resting them upon the theory of
probability. Perfect knowledge alone can give certainty, and in nature
perfect knowledge would be infinite knowledge, which is clearly beyond
our capacities. We have, therefore, to content ourselves with partial
knowledge--knowledge mingled with ignorance, producing doubt.
A great difficulty in this subject consists in acquiring a precise
notion of the matter treated. What is it that we number, and measure,
and calculate in the theory of probabilities? Is it belief, or opinion,
or doubt, or knowledge, or chance, or necessity, or want of art? Does
probability exist in the things which are probable, or in the mind
which regards them as such? The etymology of the name lends us no
assistance: for, curiously enough, *probable* is ultimately the same
word as *provable*, a good instance of one word becoming differentiated
to two opposite meanings.
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