The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
In the German equivalent *ursache*, we have plainly the
original meaning of *thing before*, the *sache* denoting “interesting
or important object,” the English *sake*, and *ur* being the equivalent
of the English *ere*, *before*. We abandon, then, both etymology and
philosophy, when we attribute to the *laws of causation* any meaning
beyond that of the *conditions* under which an event may be expected to
happen, according to our observation of the previous course of nature.
I have no objection to use the words cause and causation, provided they
are never allowed to lead us to imagine that our knowledge of nature
can attain to certainty. I repeat that if a cause is an invariable
and necessary condition of an event, we can never know certainly
whether the cause exists or not. To us, then, a cause is not to be
distinguished from the group of positive or negative conditions which,
with more or less probability, precede an event. In this sense, there
is no particular difference between knowledge of causes and our general
knowledge of the succession of combinations, in which the phenomena of
nature are presented to us, or found to occur in experimental inquiry.
*Distinction of Inductive and Deductive Results.*
We must carefully avoid confusing together inductive investigations
which terminate in the establishment of general laws, and those which
seem to lead directly to the knowledge of future particular events.
That process only can be called induction which gives general laws,
and it is by the subsequent employment of deduction that we anticipate
particular events. If the observation of a number of cases shows that
alloys of metals fuse at lower temperatures than their constituent
metals, I may with more or less probability draw a general inference
to that effect, and may thence deductively ascertain the probability
that the next alloy examined will fuse at a lower temperature than
its constituents. It has been asserted, indeed, by Mill,[133] and
partially admitted by Mr. Fowler,[134] that we can argue directly from
case to case, so that what is true of some alloys will be true of the
next. Professor Bain has adopted the same view of reasoning. He thinks
that Mill has extricated us from the dead lock of the syllogism and
effected a total revolution in logic. He holds that reasoning from
particulars to particulars is not only the usual, the most obvious and
the most ready method, but that it is the type of reasoning which best
discloses the real process.[135] Doubtless, this is the usual result of
our reasoning, regard being had to degrees of probability; but these
logicians fail entirely to give any explanation of the process by which
we get from case to case.
[133] *System of Logic*, bk. II. chap, iii.
[134] *Inductive Logic*, pp. 13, 14.
[135] Bain, *Deductive Logic*, pp. 208, 209.
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