The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
The question first of all arises, How may we describe this series of
numbers? What is uniformly true of them? The reader cannot fail to
perceive at the first glance that they all end in five, and the problem
is, from the properties of these six numbers, to infer the properties
of the next number ending in five. If we test their properties by the
process of perfect induction, we soon perceive that they have another
common property, namely that of being *divisible by five without
remainder*. May we then assert that the next number ending in five is
also divisible by five, and, if so, upon what grounds? Or extending
the question, Is every number ending in five divisible by five? Does
it follow that because six numbers obey a supposed law, therefore
376,685,975 or any other number, however large, obeys the law? I answer
*certainly not*. The law in question is undoubtedly true; but its truth
is not proved by any finite number of examples. All that these six
numbers can do is to suggest to my mind the possible existence of such
a law; and I then ascertain its truth, by proving deductively from the
rules of decimal numeration, that any number ending in five must be
made up of multiples of five, and must therefore be itself a multiple.
To make this more plain, let the reader now examine the numbers--
7, 17, 37, 47, 67, 97.
They all end in 7 instead of 5, and though not at equal intervals, the
intervals are the same as in the previous case. After consideration,
the reader will perceive that these numbers all agree in being *prime
numbers*, or multiples of unity only. May we then infer that the next,
or any other number ending in 7, is a prime number? Clearly not, for
on trial we find that 27, 57, 117 are not primes. Six instances,
then, treated empirically, lead us to a true and universal law in one
case, and mislead us in another case. We ought, in fact, to have no
confidence in any law until we have treated it deductively, and have
shown that from the conditions supposed the results expected must
ensue. No one can show from the principles of number, that numbers
ending in 7 should be primes.
From the history of the theory of numbers some good examples of false
induction can be adduced. Taking the following series of prime numbers,
41, 43, 47, 53, 61, 71, 83, 97, 113, 131, 151, &c.,
it will be found that they all agree in being values of the general
expression *x*^{2} + *x* + 41, putting for *x* in succession the
values, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, &c. We seem always to obtain a prime number, and
the induction is apparently strong, to the effect that this expression
always will give primes. Yet a few more trials disprove this false
conclusion. Put *x* = 40, and we obtain 40 × 40 + 40 + 41, or 41 × 41.
Such a failure could never have happened, had we shown any deductive
reason why *x*^{2} + *x* + 41 should give primes.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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