The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
Even the best known laws of physical science do not exclude false
inference. No law of nature has been better established than that of
universal gravitation, and we believe with the utmost confidence that
any body capable of affecting the senses will attract other bodies,
and fall to the earth if not prevented. Euler remarks that, although
he had never made trial of the stones which compose the church of
Magdeburg, yet he had not the least doubt that all of them were heavy,
and would fall if unsupported. But he adds, that it would be extremely
difficult to give any satisfactory explanation of this confident
belief.[147] The fact is, that the belief ought not to amount to
certainty until the experiment has been tried, and in the meantime a
slight amount of uncertainty enters, because we cannot be sure that
the stones of the Magdeburg Church resemble other stones in all their
properties.
[147] Euler’s *Letters to a German Princess*, translated by Hunter.
2nd ed., vol. ii. pp. 17, 18.
In like manner, not one of the inductive truths which men have
established, or think they have established, is really safe from
exception or reversal. Lavoisier, when laying the foundations of
chemistry, met with so many instances tending to show the existence
of oxygen in all acids, that he adopted a general conclusion to that
effect, and devised the name oxygen accordingly. He entertained no
appreciable doubt that the acid existing in sea salt also contained
oxygen;[148] yet subsequent experience falsified his expectations. This
instance refers to a science in its infancy, speaking relatively to
the possible achievements of men. But all sciences are and ever will
remain in their infancy, relatively to the extent and complexity of
the universe which they undertake to investigate. Euler expresses no
more than the truth when he says that it would be impossible to fix
on any one thing really existing, of which we could have so perfect
a knowledge as to put us beyond the reach of mistake.[149] We may be
quite certain that a comet will go on moving in a similar path *if*
all circumstances remain the same as before; but if we leave out this
extensive qualification, our predictions will always be subject to the
chance of falsification by some unexpected event, such as the division
of Biela’s comet or the interference of an unknown gravitating body.
[148] Lavoisier’s *Chemistry*, translated by Kerr. 3rd ed., pp. 114,
121, 123.
[149] Euler’s *Letters*, vol. ii. p. 21.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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