The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
The latter supposition is by no means absurd, for any one order is as
likely as any other when there is no preponderating tendency. But we
can readily calculate by the doctrine of permutations the probability
that fifty-two objects would fall by chance into any one particular
order. Fifty-two objects can be arranged in 52 × 51 × ... × 3 × 2 × 1
or about 8066 × (10)^{64} possible orders, the number obtained
requiring 68 places of figures for its full expression. Hence it is
excessively unlikely that anyone should ever meet with a pack of cards
arranged in perfect order by accident. If we do meet with a pack so
arranged, we inevitably adopt the other supposition, that some person,
having reasons for preferring that special order, has thus put them
together.
We know that of the immense number of possible orders the numerical
order is the most remarkable; it is useful as proving the perfect
constitution of the pack, and it is the intentional result of certain
games. At any rate, the probability that intention should produce that
order is incomparably greater than the probability that chance should
produce it; and as a certain pack exists in that order, we rightly
prefer the supposition which most probably leads to the observed result.
By a similar mode of reasoning we every day arrive, and validly arrive,
at conclusions approximating to certainty. Whenever we observe a
perfect resemblance between two objects, as, for instance, two printed
pages, two engravings, two coins, two foot-prints, we are warranted in
asserting that they proceed from the same type, the same plate, the
same pair of dies, or the same boot. And why? Because it is almost
impossible that with different types, plates, dies, or boots some
apparent distinction of form should not be produced. It is impossible
for the hand of the most skilful artist to make two objects alike, so
that mechanical repetition is the only probable explanation of exact
similarity.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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