The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
The science of astronomy, occupied with the simple relations of
distance, magnitude, and motion of the heavenly bodies, admits more
easily than almost any other science of interesting conclusions founded
on the theory of probability. More than a century ago, in 1767, Michell
showed the extreme probability of bonds connecting together systems
of stars. He was struck by the unexpected number of fixed stars
which have companions close to them. Such a conjunction might happen
casually by one star, although possibly at a great distance from the
other, happening to lie on a straight line passing near the earth.
But the probabilities are so greatly against such an optical union
happening often in the expanse of the heavens, that Michell asserted
the existence of some connection between most of the double stars.
It has since been estimated by Struve, that the odds are 9570 to 1
against any two stars of not less than the seventh magnitude falling
within the apparent distance of four seconds of each other by chance,
and yet ninety-one such cases were known when the estimation was made,
and many more cases have since been discovered. There were also four
known triple stars, and yet the odds against the appearance of any one
such conjunction are 173,524 to 1.[156] The conclusions of Michell have
been entirely verified by the discovery that many double stars are
connected by gravitation.
[156] Herschel, *Outlines of Astronomy*, 1849, p. 565; but Todhunter,
in his *History of the Theory of Probability*, p. 335, states that
the calculations do not agree with those published by Struve.
Michell also investigated the probability that the six brightest stars
in the Pleiades should have come by accidents into such striking
proximity. Estimating the number of stars of equal or greater
brightness at 1500, be found the odds to be nearly 500,000 to 1 against
casual conjunction. Extending the same kind of argument to other
clusters, such as that of Præsepe, the nebula in the hilt of Perseus’
sword, he says:[157] “We may with the highest probability conclude,
the odds against the contrary opinion being many million millions
to one, that the stars are really collected together in clusters
in some places, where they form a kind of system, while in others
there are either few or none of them, to whatever cause this may be
owing, whether to their mutual gravitation, or to some other law or
appointment of the Creator.”
[157] *Philosophical Transactions*, 1767, vol. lvii. p. 431.
The calculations of Michell have been called in question by the late
James D. Forbes,[158] and Mr. Todhunter vaguely countenances his
objections,[159] otherwise I should not have thought them of much
weight. Certainly Laplace accepts Michell’s views,[160] and if Michell
be in error it is in the methods of calculation, not in the general
validity of his reasoning and conclusions.
[158] *Philosophical Magazine*, 3rd Series, vol. xxxvii. p. 401,
December 1850; also August 1849.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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