The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
So far we have treated only of the process by which we pass from
special facts to general laws, that inverse application of deduction
which constitutes induction. But the direct employment of deduction
is often combined with the inverse. No sooner have we established
a general law, than the mind rapidly draws particular consequences
from it. In geometry we may almost seem to infer that *because* one
equilateral triangle is equiangular, therefore another is so. In
reality it is not because one is that another is, but because all
are. The geometrical conditions are perfectly general, and by what
is sometimes called *parity of reasoning* whatever is true of one
equilateral triangle, so far as it is equilateral, is true of all
equilateral triangles.
Similarly, in all other cases of inductive inference, where we seem to
pass from some particular instances to a new instance, we go through
the same process. We form an hypothesis as to the logical conditions
under which the given instances might occur; we calculate inversely
the probability of that hypothesis, and compounding this with the
probability that a new instance would proceed from the same conditions,
we gain the absolute probability of occurrence of the new instance in
virtue of this hypothesis. But as several, or many, or even an infinite
number of mutually inconsistent hypotheses may be possible, we must
repeat the calculation for each such conceivable hypothesis, and then
the complete probability of the future instance will be the sum of the
separate probabilities. The complication of this process is often very
much reduced in practice, owing to the fact that one hypothesis may be
almost certainly true, and other hypotheses, though conceivable, may be
so improbable as to be neglected without appreciable error.
When we possess no knowledge whatever of the conditions from which
the events proceed, we may be unable to form any probable hypotheses
as to their mode of origin. We have now to fall back upon the general
solution of the problem effected by Laplace, which consists in
admitting on an equal footing every conceivable ratio of favourable
and unfavourable chances for the production of the event, and then
accepting the aggregate result as the best which can be obtained. This
solution is only to be accepted in the absence of all better means,
but like other results of the calculus of probability, it comes to our
aid where knowledge is at an end and ignorance begins, and it prevents
us from over-estimating the knowledge we possess. The general results
of the solution are in accordance with common sense, namely, that
the more often an event has happened the more probable, as a general
rule, is its subsequent recurrence. With the extension of experience
this probability increases, but at the same time the probability is
slight that events will long continue to happen as they have previously
happened.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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