History, Modern -- 19th century; Nineteenth century
Does the present hold out any probabilities of important changes in the
near future, of revolutionary changes? No. For twenty-five or thirty
years now we have been expecting from the ram and from the torpedo
results which would displace the gun from its supremacy of centuries.
Those results, however, are not yet visible. No one disputes the
tremendous effects of the ram and of the torpedo when successfully
used; but I believe I am correct in saying that the great preponderance
of professional opinion does not attribute to them a certainty, or an
approach to certainty, impairing the predominance of the gun. This
is not the conclusion of mere conservation in a profession naturally
conservative. The fluctuations of professional opinion have been
sufficiently marked and the matter sufficiently argued to dispose of
that contention. Nor is this supremacy of the gun probably a transient
matter, liable to pass away with improvements greater than those of
the last quarter of a century. The advantage of the gun depends upon
conditions probably permanent—upon its greater range, its greater
accuracy, its greater rapidity. The individual effect of each shot may
be less than that of a torpedo or of a ram thrust; but, as was said in
comparing very heavy guns with rapid fire, the probability of many hits
prevails over the possibilities of one great blow.
THE GUN AND THE TORPEDO
In none of these features is either of the other weapons likely to
overtake the gun. The torpedo relies mainly upon stealth, the ram
mainly upon a happy chance for effective use. Both stealth and chance
have their place in war; stratagem and readiness, each in place,
may contribute much. But the decisive issues of war depend upon the
handling of masses with celerity and precision, according to certain
general principles of recognized universality. Afloat, such massed
force, to be wielded accurately and rapidly, must consist of units not
too numerous because of their smallness—as torpedo craft would be—nor
too unwieldy because of their size. We may not be able to determine
yet, in advance of prolonged experience of war, just what the happy
mean may be corresponding in principle to the old seventy-four, but
we may be reasonably sure that it will be somewhere in the ranks of
the present battle-ships; and that in the range, accuracy and rapidity
of their gun-fire—especially when acting in fleets—will be found a
protection which the small vessels that rely upon the torpedo or ram
alone will not be able to overcome, though they may in rare instances
elude.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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