History, Modern -- 19th century; Nineteenth century
By 1872, however, we had both rainfall and sun-spot observations,
and the cycle of the latter had been made out. Meldrum, the most
distinguished meteorologist living at the time, and others, pronounced
that the rainfall was greatest at sun-spot maximum, and, further, that
the greatest number of cyclones occurred in the East and West Indies at
such times.
This result with regard to rainfall was not generally accepted, but
Chambers showed shortly afterwards an undoubted connection between the
cycles of solar spots and barometric pressure in the Indian area.
By means of a study of the widened lines observed in sun spots an
attempt has been recently made to study the temperature, history of the
sun since about 1877, and the years of mean temperature and when the
heat was in excess (+) and defect (-) made out, have been as follows:
Heat
condition mean + mean − mean + mean − mean
Years 1869 1876 1881 1886–87 1891–92
1870–75 1877–80 1882–86 1881–91 1892
Having these solar data, the next thing to do was to study the Indian
rainfall during the southwest monsoon for the years 1877–1886, the
object being to endeavor to ascertain if the + and − temperature pulses
in the sun were echoed by + and − pulses of rainfall. The Indian
rainfall was taken first because in the tropics the phenomena are
known to be the simplest. It was found that in many parts of India the
+ and − conditions of solar temperature were accompanied by + and −
pulses, producing pressure changes and heavy rains in the Indian Ocean
and the surrounding land. These occurred generally in the first year
following the mean condition, that is, in 1877–78 and 1882–83.
The rainfalls at Mauritius, Cape Town, and Batavia were next collated
to see if the pulses felt in India were traceable in other regions
surrounding the Indian Ocean to the south and east. This was found to
be the case.
A wider inquiry was followed, we are told, with equal success, so that
we are justified in hoping that the question of the dependence of
terrestrial upon solar weather has made a step in advance.
But just as the general public and practical men took little heed of
the connection between sun spots and magnetism until experience taught
them that telegraphic messages often could not “get through” when
there were many sun spots, so the same public will not consider the
connection in regard to meteorology unless the forecasting of droughts
and famines be possible.
The recent work suggests that, if the recent advances in solar physics
be considered, the inquiries regarding rainfall may be placed on a
firmer basis than they could possibly have had in 1872, and that such
forecastings may become possible.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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