The range of profits of industry during periods of falling prices will
depend upon the nature of the causes which produce the decline. If it is
simply the result of an increase in industrial efficiency, or progress
in the industrial arts, profits will continue to be satisfactory and may
even be on the increase. If, on the other hand, the price decline
results from the occurrence of those short periods of forced liquidation
known as crises, and is accompanied by that state of recuperative and
cautious business activity known as depression, profits in most
industries are apt to be quite low. Such was the 1893-96 period in the
United States. During the period of forced liquidation and immediately
thereafter, the number of bankruptcies is likely to be high.[51] No
general statement is possible concerning the duration of such a period
of depression and low profits; all accompanying circumstances play a
complicating part in retarding or hastening business recovery.--The
present depression of 1920-21 is almost of unprecedented duration, for
example. Nor should it be supposed that the state of depression must be
identical with the period of price decline.[52] Given favorable
circumstances, the price decline soon leads to a search for new methods
of economy in production. Raw materials are likely to fall in price.
Supplementary costs are rapidly reduced. The price of labor tends to
fall. Even though prices continue to fall slowly, profits may rise to a
level encouraging to business activity. This may also be true of a
period of liquidation not preceded by crisis.
In conclusion, it can only be repeated, however, that confident
generalization as to the direct effects of falling prices is impossible.
Each business cycle has its own peculiar characteristics--it is unique
as Mitchell says.[53]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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