The second case is that in which the decline in prices marks a period of
reaction from a previous period of price increase and a tendency to
limit production costs and to proceed cautiously, but is not accompanied
by much forced liquidation and is not the result of any urgent necessity
to reduce bank credit. In short, when the business conditions
accompanying the price decline do not warrant apprehensions of a crisis,
serious as they may be temporarily. Price declines of this sort may be
considerable in extent; they will be gradual rather than violent. They
are apt to be characterized by less dispersion than those which are
precipitated by crises. In this case also there would seem to be no good
reason why wages should be reduced. A decline of prices would be
desirable, it is true. The industrial position would be improved thereby
and industrial activity would be put upon a sound financial basis. Some
contraction of credit is to be desired if, as is assumed in this case,
the period of decline was preceded by one of considerable price increase
and credit expansion. But these results may be obtained without any
reduction in wage rates. The cost of labor will fall without any
reduction in wage rates, as the amount of overtime work is lessened, as
employment is concentrated upon the more efficient workers, and as
workmen put more energy into their jobs in order to hold them. Such
times as these usually lead, furthermore, to the introduction of new or
forgotten economies, and to improvements in the method of production.
Thus it can be concluded in this case that whatever reduction of the
price level is required to restore industry to a sound financial basis
can be accomplished without reducing wage rates.
The third case is that in which the decline in prices is abrupt--at the
beginning at all events--and is precipitated by much forced liquidation
of a character disastrous to the enterprises forced to undertake it. In
short, when it is brought about by an industrial crisis or when an
industrial crisis is actively threatened. In this case the decline is
usually preceded by a period of rapidly rising prices which brings about
an over-extension of credit and puts heavy pressure upon the banking
system. Maladjustments in industry manifest themselves and fear comes to
govern all production. The price decline in different industries is apt
to vary greatly in extent.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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