This case is to be distinguished from the previous one really only by
the decided seriousness of the situation it reveals. In this case it is
presumed that a decided judgment may be made that the price level must
be greatly lowered before business operations can revive and be carried
on with confidence in steady markets. In the previous one it is presumed
that a decided judgment can be formed to the effect that the shock to
business will be satisfactorily gotten over with just that reduction of
prices that liquidation and a more careful conducting of business
operations will bring about. The difference is, in the last analysis,
one of degree.
A price decline that is in reality a movement from a state of
depreciated paper money back to a gold standard may be looked upon as a
variant of the third case. For it is obvious that if the depreciation is
extensive, the decline in the price level necessary to the attainment of
the gold basis must also be extensive.
There is a fourth possible case which will be described, but will not be
followed up, since it is not applicable to the United States at the
present time. It is the case of a country whose chief industries are
export industries--the prices of the products of which are determined by
world competition. This case is complex and not to be analyzed by a
general rule. A few observations may be made. It is conceivable that a
situation should arise in which a policy of wage reduction is expedient
because the export industries are very gravely threatened by foreign
competition. In such a situation it may be argued that any genuine
necessity for a reduction of wages would be manifested by the pressure
of the banking system, because of the outflow of gold that would occur
consequent to a great falling off of exports. But, as we have seen
during the war, such a banking situation may be avoided for a number of
years by such devices as foreign loans, and the industries in question
would decline in the meantime. On the other hand, any policy of general
wage reduction could only be undertaken with caution. Situations of the
sort described tend to call out the reserve energies of a country. They
are always present to a greater or less extent.
So much then in answer to the first question--as to whether there was
any reason for wage reduction during periods of declining prices. The
second question then presents itself--on what basis should such
reductions as are advocated be arranged? On which subject the
conclusions reached in the course of discussion of wage adjustment to
upward price movement are applicable. These conclusions will be recalled
at various points further on in the book.
FOOTNOTES:
[58] Nor has it for that matter been applied with
consistency in Great Britain. See the Minority Report of the
War Cabinet Committee on "Women's Wages," 1918, page 262.
[59] Webb, "Industrial Democracy," Doctrine of the Vested
Interests, pages 562-572, 595.
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