This policy could not fail to overreach itself. On the one hand the Kozaks knew only of his apparent devotion to the cause of the Tsar and those officers and men who were most hostile to Peter steadily lost confidence in him. On the other hand he could not rally any wide classes to his standards nor could he take the most elementary steps for moving his own troops into advantageous positions for the coming struggle. Perhaps he believed that he had only to give the order and all the Kozaks would spring to arms in his behalf. If so, he was badly mistaken, for his whole policy had alienated a large part of the Kozak forces and he could not appeal to them as easily as could the older hetmans who had tried to keep in close contact with the masses of the Host. The sequence of events is still uncertain, but after a year of this double play, Charles suddenly turned his attention back to Russia and attacked Peter from Lithuania, not far from the Ukrainian border. His original plan seems to have been to seize Smolensk and march on Moscow, while General Loewenhaupt attacked from Livonia. Suddenly, as winter was coming on, Charles turned south into Ukraine. Mazepa now could realize the evils of his excessive caution. Peter, at the first attack, had ordered a large part of the Kozak regiments moved into Lithuania and had sent a Russian army into Ukraine to protect Mazepa and his officers from the hatred of the Ukrainians, something for which Mazepa had previously begged. This left him in an impossible position and did not strengthen Charles, for the very troops that might have swelled the size of the Swedish army were where they could not be easily reached and the Russians were in the very heart of Mazepa’s territory. Still it was now or never. There was the one chance that Charles might defeat the Russian army in the first encounter. If he did, Mazepa would have won his game of freeing Ukraine from both Russia and Poland, for Sweden was willing to promise them complete independence and Leszczynski and the Polish magnates were not in a position to oppose this. If Charles failed for lack of Ukrainian help, the fate of Ukraine was sealed. Mazepa could remain loyal to Peter but he would have to resign all thought of liberating his country and becoming an independent ruler. It hardly seems possible that Mazepa invited Charles to spend the winter in Ukraine, before he threw off the mask of allegiance to Peter. If he did, it certainly reflects upon his understanding of the military situation and it was a poor move on the part of Charles, although he might hope that he could receive more supplies and have better winter quarters in Ukraine than further to the north.