[102] Looked at in another way, it may be said that if a natural increase, as ascertained by subtracting the death-rate from the birth-rate, of 10 to 15 per cent be regarded as normal, then, taking so far as possible the figures for 1909, the natural increase of England and Scotland, of Germany, of Italy, of Austria and Hungary, of Belgium, is normal; the natural increase of New South Wales, of Victoria, of South Australia, of New Zealand, is abnormally high (though in new countries such increase may not be undesirable) while the natural increase of France, of Spain, and of Ireland is abnormally low. Such a method of estimation, of course, entirely leaves out of account the question of the social desirability of the process by which the normal increase is secured. [103] Johannsen, _Janus_, 1905. [104] Rubin, "A Measure of Civilization," _Journal of the Royal Statistical Society_, March, 1897. "The lowest stage of civilization," he points out, "is to go forward blindly, which in this connection means to bring into the world a great number of children which must, in great proportion, sink into the grave. The next stage of civilization is to see the danger and to keep clear of it. The highest stage of civilization is to see the danger and overcome it." Europe in the past and various countries in the present illustrate the first stage; France illustrates the second stage; the third stage is that towards which we are striving to move to-day. [105] Baines, "The Recent Growth of Population in Western Europe," _Journal of the Royal Statistical Society_, December, 1909. [106] Various facts and references are given by Havelock Ellis, _The Nationalization of Health_, chap. XIV. [107] These are the figures given by the chief Japanese authority, Professor Takano, _Journal of the Royal Statistical Society_, July, 1910, p. 738. [108] E.A. Ross, "The Race Fibre of the Chinese," _Popular Science Monthly_, October, 1911. According to another competent and fairly concordant estimate, the infantile death-rate of China is 90 per cent. Of the female infants, probably about 1 in 10 is intentionally destroyed. [109] J.J. Matignon, "La Mere et l'Enfant en Chine," _Archives d'Anthropologie Criminelle_, October to November, 1909. [110] Arsene Dumont, for instance, points out (_Depopulation et Civilization_, p. 116) that the very early marriages and the reckless fertility of the Chinese cannot fail to cease as soon as the people adopt European ways. [111] The confident estimates of the future population of the world which are from time to time put forward on the basis of the present birth-rate are quite worthless. A brilliantly insubstantial fabric of this kind, by B.L. Putnam Weale (_The Conflict of Colour_, 1911), has been justly criticized by Professor Weatherley (_Popular Science Monthly_, November, 1911).