The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
The bane of nearly all speculators of the soft-grained type—by which we
mean men whose will and judgment bends this way and that, like a reed
that nods allegiance to any quarter of the world according to the blow
of the wind—is, that they are for ever on the itch to do something.
There is no getting them to wait for an opportunity. There are two
sorts of opportunities, and the distinction between them is important.
The speculator feels much more at home in availing himself of one than
of the other. The man who can wait for extremes is the one who will
have the best chance of making extreme profits, provided he can be
fairly sure of a good grasp of the duration of passing influences. One
kind of opportunity is after a sharp fall in prices. As we have before
remarked, most speculators feel more at ease in operating for the rise,
and consequently know best what they are about after a fall in prices,
and they make themselves bulls. The other kind is after a well sustained
rise. But it has been generally observed that speculators sell bears
of stock with more timidity than they buy bulls. One reason, no doubt,
beyond that referred to is, that they have a feeling in their own
minds that in selling for the fall they are going against the current,
which on the surface seems to be a rash proceeding. But in being able
to combat this feeling lies one of the main elements of success. It is
out of the public that successful speculators make their money, and
consequently there must be the greater chance of losing by following
the lead of the public. Of the two opportunities therefore of which a
speculator can avail himself with the most advantage, that of looking
on at a rise and opening a bear account at the new prices is, under
ordinary circumstances, the most worth his attention, as the reaction
is generally more rapid after a sharp rise than after a fall, owing to
there being more new interests engaged in causing it. A rapid rise is
promoted largely by speculators whose operations for purposes of enticing
the public to buy, may be compared to the exertions of a horse in a
great race that is entered to make the running for the favourite. Those
speculators are more anxious, as a rule, to realize their profits as
bulls, off high figures, than they are to close bear accounts; for, when
a panic has driven prices down, some time will elapse before confidence
revives, and in the meantime it may be renewed.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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