The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
We will now suppose a familiar case of a speculator following in the
path of so many wise persons who have gone before to their ruin in the
process of applying some nostrum, which was to make their fortune in a
week. The fortnightly settlements on the Stock Exchange take place about
the middle and end of each month. We will suppose a young speculator,
full of ideas upon such subjects, and having just sufficient knowledge
of the different stocks to make believe that he knows a great deal,
gets introduced to a broker, who on ascertaining that he has two or
three hundred pounds available, intimates his willingness to execute his
orders. The speculator buys £5,000 Turkish 5 per cents of 1865, £5,000
Spanish 3 per cents and £5,000 Egyptian 7 per cents of 1868, being told
that these are easy markets to deal in. We will assume these bargains
are done in the middle of an account. On the day of the purchases the
several stocks rise ¼ to ½ per cent., and he goes home a happy man with
his contracts in his pocket, reckoning the gain he has already made, and
sleeps like a top. He rises with a light heart next morning to devour
his money article and breakfast simultaneously, eagerly searching in the
list for his friends the Turkish, Spanish and Egyptian Stocks. The rise
reported to him by his broker the evening before is confirmed in his
newspaper, and he is in the act of laying it down when his eye catches a
telegram, headed “Defeat and resignation of the French Government.” His
little experience has already taught him that the leading foreign stocks
are largely dealt in on the Continent, and here comes a sinking of the
heart number one. The breakfast is left unfinished, and he hurries to
the city to find the Stock Markets open very flat all around on selling
orders from Paris. The ¼ to ½ per cent. profit had disappeared, and an
additional 1 per cent. into the bargain; so that instead of standing to
gain £30 or £40, he stands to lose £150. A conference with the broker
is somewhat encouraging, as he laughs over the matter, and assures his
client that “they are bound to rally.” Another day passes and there is
no rally. Several days go by, and disorders in the streets are reported
from Paris, causing further sales in the London market, and our friend
sees a loss of £300 on his three purchases.[40] The “carrying over” day
arrives without any recovery having taken place, but the broker is still
cheerful, being himself a man of some means, although suffering from the
prevalent disease of a great weakness for commissions, which has often
caused him heavy losses through negligence in ascertaining the means of
his clients. “It is only a question of seeing it out, sir,” he says, an
observation which disperses with a lightning flash the ignorance under
which our friend had hitherto labored with regard to the necessity of
available capital, or in still plainer terms, ready cash. He goes away to
turn this awkward dilemma in which he finds himself, over in his mind.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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