Let us sum up the major items of ordinary trade. From Kinley's figures, we may get some idea of the proportions of wholesale and retail trade to the total for 1909, assuming that the deposit figures indicate that total. Retail deposits make up less than one-eleventh of the total, and wholesale deposits about two-elevenths. The figures were: retail, 60 millions, wholesale, 124 millions, and "all other," 502 millions. But the "all other" deposits were lower than normal. New York City was, in the first place, probably less complete than the rest of the country, in the figures returned, and, in the second place, New York City, as shown by the clearings of March 17 (the next day, when checks deposited in New York would get into the clearings) was 28% below normal. The rest of the country was within 3% of normal.[263] Not to refine matters too much, we shall, on the assumption that the variable element in New York deposits is connected with the Stock Exchange (as shown by Mr. Silberling's correlations and other considerations), and on the assumption that deposits connected with the stock market appear in the "all other" deposits, add a little over 20% of New York's total of 198 millions, or 40 millions, to the "all other" deposits for the country, leaving the wholesale and retail deposits unchanged. What error there is in this is favorable to the wholesale and retail deposits. Our proportions, then, are: retail, 60, wholesale, 124, "all other," 542, total, 726. If the retail deposits correctly represented retail trade, we could then say that retail trade was a little less than one-twelfth of the whole, and wholesale trade about one-sixth. But there are many speculative transactions engaged in by wholesalers, and a good many by retailers. The writer knows a small delicatessen dealer on Amsterdam Avenue, in New York, who frequently speculates in eggs and canned goods. A colleague in the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration is authority for the statement that speculation in canned goods and some other things is quite common among retailers, particularly "hedging" by the use of "futures," in canned goods. Speculation among wholesalers is very extensive. The same is true of manufacturers. The same authority cited some cotton manufacturers whose profits from cotton speculation are greater than their profits from manufacturing. We shall see reason to suppose that a very substantial part of manufacturers' deposits were included in the wholesale deposits. That the figures for retailers' deposits exaggerate the retail trade may appear from several considerations: (1) The proportion of checks to cash reported is too high: 73.2%. Dean Kinley allows 5% of the checks deposited to be "accommodation checks,"[264] cashed for customers, rather than taken in in trade. (2) If retail deposits are taken as exactly representative of retail trade, we should get a retail trade for the year of over 32