“Some fellow, but that fellow’s name isn’t Davenant. Don’t you see, we’ve got the porter’s word for it that Davenant came up from London by the later train, the 3.47. And Miss Rendall-Smith can also witness that he took the later train. So that, long before Davenant had got as far as Paston Oatvile—actually, when he was only seven minutes out of London—Brotherhood was falling down that embankment. And where’s your conviction now?” “Quite true—if we’re right. But it is only circumstantial evidence, isn’t it? We’ve proved our own case more plausible than the case against Davenant, but we haven’t shown that the case against Davenant is impossible. However, if we’re right, one thing is pretty clear—that the murder was a deliberate one, deeply and carefully planned. And we’ve got to find somebody who had the motive and the opportunity to carry out this very elaborate scheme.” “I know. The police will never look at our objections until they lead us to find the real man. The police always want to have a victim.” “And we can’t show, can we, that it was impossible for Davenant to throw a man out of the 4.50 train?” “We can show it’s improbable. Remember how crowded the 4.50 always is, how crowded it was on the day when you and I travelled by it. The three o’clock train from London, of course, wouldn’t be a bit crowded; people haven’t started getting away from business by then—it’s only for ladies who have been up to shop. One could secure privacy even in a third-class carriage on that train.” “But it’s only circumstantial evidence still.” “There are two other things we want to get to work on; the washing-list, as we called it, though I’m pretty certain it’s nothing of the kind, which we found on the back of the cipher, and the golf-ball which we found beside the line.” “We want a theory, too, about the cipher. I wonder if Davenant admits that he wrote that cipher? You see, it will be apt to tell against him. He knew that Brotherhood had made a promise, and was threatening to break it. So that the police will attach importance to a document which tells him that he will perish if he goes back upon his faith.” “Yes, if they find out about it. But do you suppose the police have read that cipher? I very much doubt it.” “Aren’t you going to tell them about it?” “I don’t think so. I know what you’ll say, you’ll say that one should always tell the truth. But it isn’t an easy thing, telling the truth. I know what the truth is—namely that Davenant is innocent. I know, therefore, that this post card was a side-issue, irrelevant to the true explanation. If I show the police the meaning of the cipher, it will fortify them in what I know to be a false impression. Therefore, aren’t I serving the best interests of truth if I sit on the cipher and say nothing about it?” “I wonder,” said Gordon. Chapter XVIII The Holmes Method When they met at breakfast next morning, Gordon was in a chastened mood.