Hughes, William Morris, 1864-1952; Lloyd George, David, 1863-1945; World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
In buying foreign war bonds--a procedure which in war time naturally
involves sentiment--it is wise for the investor to watch his step.
Patriotism is all right in its place but unless you can afford to
contribute money for purely emotional reasons, a cold business estimate
of the situation is advisable. This applies especially to the man or
woman with savings who cannot afford to take chances. He or she will
find it a good rule to stick to external bonds except under exceptional
conditions.
One objection to the average internal bond is that with the exception of
England the native money has greatly depreciated in international value.
Of course, if all these countries finally get back to their old
standards of wealth, these investments will yield a very large profit.
To reap this benefit, however, it will be necessary to hold the
securities for a considerable period because it will take the warring
countries a long time to "come back." Another fact in connection with
internal bonds well worth remembering is that while belligerent
countries will scrupulously respect their obligations held by a great
neutral like the United States whose good will and resources will be
very necessary after the close of hostilities, there is the possibility,
remote though it may be, that repudiation of home issues may come in the
shock of readjustment.
In a word, in purchasing a foreign war bond be sure to get a stable
national name, accumulated wealth, habits of thrift, an ample taxing
power, and a good conversion basis behind the security.
Amid all our war lending lurks a menace to future and necessary American
financing. In flush times like these it is comparatively easy for us to
spare large sums of money, because such capital is available and not
missed at home. If there was the absolute certainty that all the foreign
short term loans would be paid on maturity there would be no reason to
show the red light.
But any man who knows anything about the European financial situation
also knows that it will be extremely difficult, almost impossible, for
the fighting nations to meet their obligations within the time
specified. This does not mean that they will be unable to pay. It does
mean, however, that the inroads of the war will have been so terrific
that pressing needs will so continue to pile up that renewals must be
sought. Thus our money will still be tied up.
What will happen at home? Simply this. American enterprise which will
need capital for expansion may have to wait. In discussing this matter
one of the best known American bankers said this to me the other day:
"If America had a benevolent despot I believe that he ought to set
aside an arbitrary sum which would represent the limit that we as a
nation could lend each year to foreign countries."
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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