The War and DemocracySeton-Watson, R. W. (Robert William)
History
The War and Democracy
Seton-Watson, R. W. (Robert William)
Europe -- Politics and government -- 1871-1918; Nationalism -- Europe; World War, 1914-1918
Now the demand for the goods hitherto supplied by Germany to her foreign
customers, though abated, will still continue. As we have seen, she cannot
for the present supply them. By whom will she be superseded?[1] The
Government of this country early in the war took steps to co-operate with
British traders in an attempt to obtain some share of this trade, and the
United States also strove to make the fullest use of the opportunity. In
this country goods previously imported from Germany will, if still needed,
either be bought from the next cheapest importer or produced at home.
Commodities which we have in the past produced for German consumption are
not now required from us. If they continue to be made, it must be for other
countries. In other words, whether the volume of British foreign trade
remains the same or not, a proportion of it will be diverted into new
channels during the progress of the war. In a less degree, the trade of
other states will be deflected from its accustomed channels. Beyond this,
special influences will be felt in the case of certain new countries, as
for example Canada. "Canada's annual balance of trade is probably about
£60,000,000 against her: £30,000,000 being the excess of her trade imports
over her trade exports and the remaining £30,000,000 representing her
annual payment on money borrowed. She has balanced her account hitherto by
borrowing very large sums of money. Now she will be unable to do that any
longer. Nor will she at present, at any rate, obtain the immigrants on
which she is counting to enable her to pay her interest. She cannot redeem
the balance due by the export of gold. The burden would be too great in any
case, and moreover she has suspended specie payments. A part of the balance
due may be covered by the higher value of her exports, such as wheat. The
remainder she can only meet either by increasing her exports or by
reducing her imports. The latter she has already begun to do."[2] This new
readjustment may be accompanied by great economic loss; in any case the
dislocation will be harmful for the time, not only to the new countries,
but to the countries with whom they trade. It is clear that foreign trade
generally will during the war gradually be readjusted to the new conditions
of the times. To what extent the various streams of the world's trade will
be directed into new channels it is impossible to say; the readjustment
will be partly temporary, and partly permanent.[3] This redistribution of
production, if it leads to production under less favourable conditions than
before, will tend to raise prices, and thereby probably diminish the
power to buy other commodities. If it leads to the substitution of a well
organised and well paid industry by an industry of a less skilled kind,
there will be in effect a net lowering of wages. The widespread effects of
the war on industry and commerce must, therefore, have a profound effect on
the whole of the economic world.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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