We cannot confidently estimate. We know we shall have greater burdens to bear in the shape of extra taxation. But the conclusion of the war may greatly lighten these burdens if the blessings of a complete and lasting peace be as great as we hope they will be. What we truly mean by economic credit is economic confidence. If we eliminated the word “credit” from our economic vocabulary and always used its synonym confidence, we should have a clearer grasp of our ideas. I think Mr. Withers will agree that he really means confidence. If so, we may amend the passage and say, “We cannot have confidence without civilization.... Confidence depends on the assumption that goods purchased will come to market and be sold--that is, consumed--and that securities that are based on the earning power of production, which power comes from wealth, will fetch a price, high or low, on the exchanges of the world.” We ascribe depression in trade to a lack of confidence. We never say trade is depressed in consequence of a lack of credit. When trade is depressed there is often an abundance of what is called Lombard Street credit. Therefore a scarcity of confidence is frequently coincident with a superfluity of banking “credit.” How, therefore, can they be one and the same thing? It is confidence that increases wealth, because it imparts the energy to produce and consume. Capital without confidence is impotent, as impotent as a weapon in the hands of a paralytic. Confidence can, perhaps, re-create as quickly as war can destroy. If, therefore, victory in the present war comes to the higher nations and to the greater number of nations, these, together with the neutral nations, will be revitalized by confidence. They will have a moral and a spiritual re-birth. There can be no prolonged exhaustion, no prolonged prostration in such re-birth. On the contrary, it will bring economic regeneration and re-creation. As the prospects of ultimate victory become more assured the re-birth and re-creation will begin the sooner. There are, indeed, no signs of moral or economic prostration in this country, and I do not believe such signs appear in France and Russia. More evil is done by pessimistic prediction than we dream of. No man is gifted to see into the economic future. We have seen already many dark visions dispelled. There are many prophets amongst us--some are on the directorates of banks--already dressed in the mantle of woe, bidding us prepare for the day of sorrow, when we shall gather the aftermath of want and misery. The day of sorrow has indeed come, but, with all respect to the penetrating vision of these seers, the long day of joy may dawn for us when this night is ended. CHAPTER XXI CONFIDENCE AND GREATNESS