In the first place, let us enquire whether Russia is really pressing on towards the south; and if so, what, up to the present moment, has been the extent of her actual advance. Until twenty-five years ago, very little attention had been devoted to Russian policy in Central Asia. The occupation of Afghanistan by the English, and the Russo-Persian alliance and expedition against Khiva, were the causes that first led to the subject of Turkestan being touched upon in the diplomatic correspondence between the cabinets of St. Petersburg and London. Since that time a tolerable calm has ensued. England, discouraged by {441} the failure of her plans, withdrew at once, but Russia still keeps silently advancing, and essential changes have taken place with respect to her frontiers on the side of Turkestan. On the western part of Central Asia--for instance, on the Sea of Aral and its shores--Russian influence has considerably increased. With the exception of the mouth of the Oxus, the entire west of the Aral Sea is recognised Russian territory. Upon that sea itself there are, at this day, three steamers to which the Khan of Khiva has given permission to advance as far as Kungrat. [Footnote 160] It is given out that they are there to protect their fisheries; but they may probably have another destination, and every one in Khiva knows that the recent revolutions in Kungrat, as well as other frequent skirmishes between Kasaks and Özbegs, have a certain connection with these fishing boats. But these are only secondary plans. The real line of operations is rather to be sought along the left bank of the Jaxartes. Here we find the Russian outposts supported by an uninterrupted chain of forts and walls, pushed on as far as Kale Rehim, distant thirty-two miles from Tashkend, which city may, as I have remarked, be regarded as a key to all conquests in Central Asia. This route, which traverses fewer deserts than any other, is also in different respects {442} well chosen. An army would be here exposed, indeed, to more surprises; but these can be resisted more easily than the fury of the elements. On the eastern frontiers of Khokand also, beyond Namengan, the Russians continue to move nearer and nearer; and in the time of Khudayar Khan many collisions had already taken place there between the Khokandi and the Russians. [Footnote 160: That the Russian vessels do not pass higher up the Oxus is alone attributable to the numerous sandbanks in that river, which rapidly shift their places. I am astonished that Barnes expresses himself so lightly respecting its navigability. Boatmen who have passed all their lives on the Oxus assured me that the sandbanks change position so often that the experience and observation of one day are useless for the day that follows.]