It was an artful plan, but it was not to be expected that the Guises
would stand by inactive whilst they saw their king’s only brother and
heir being drawn further into the toils of the Huguenots and the
Protestant Queen of England, and they soon delivered their counter-blow.
As Catharine’s enmity to Philip became more pronounced, the Guises had
drawn closer to him as the champion of Catholicism, of which cause they
were the representatives in France. In February 1580, accordingly, the
Archbishop of Glasgow, the Scottish ambassador in Paris, told Philip’s
ambassador there that he and Guise had prevailed upon Mary Stuart to
place her interests and influence unreservedly in Philip’s hands, and to
send her son James to Spain, to have him brought up and married there,
as the King of Spain wished. This was very important, because Philip had
always been paralysed in his action with regard to Mary by the
consideration that her accession to the throne of England would make the
Guises--Frenchmen--paramount there. But if Mary and the Guises were
henceforward to be his humble servants, the whole position was changed.
Vargas, the ambassador, so understood it. “Such,” he says, “is the
present condition of England, with signs of revolt everywhere, the
queen in alarm, the Catholic party numerous, Ireland disturbed, and
distrust aroused by your Majesty’s fleet, ... that if so much as a cat
moved, the whole fabric would crumble down in three days, beyond
repair.... If your Majesty had England and Scotland attached to you,
directly or indirectly, you might consider the States of Flanders
conquered, in which case you ... could lay down the law for the whole
world.” Guise’s detachment from French interests made all the
difference, and this marked a change of Philip’s policy towards England,
which, as will be shown, ultimately led him into the quagmire of the
Armada. Mary, unfortunately for herself, was always ready for a plot
against her enemy; and Beaton assured Vargas shortly afterwards that she
would not leave prison except as Queen of England. The Catholics were so
numerous, said Beaton, that if they rose, it would be easy, even without
assistance; but if the King of Spain helped, the result would be prompt
and undoubted. Almost simultaneously with this Morton fell, and the
Catholic party in Scotland gained the upper hand.