The Year after the Armada, and Other Historical Studies
David Hume · en
For a time it looked as if the alliance had been rendered proof against
all attack by the marriage of Philip and Mary, and it is highly
probable that it would have been so if Renard's plan to marry Elizabeth
to the Duke of Savoy had been carried out; but here again circumstances
were too strong for persons. The marriage would have been useless
unless Elizabeth were first legitimised, and Mary {179} could not
legitimise her without bastardising herself, which she obstinately
refused to do, notwithstanding all the entreaties of Philip and his
friends. But Philip ostentatiously favoured his young sister-in-law,
in the hope that when she came to the throne he might have some claim
upon her gratitude, and induce her to maintain the friendship which was
so necessary for his interests. It was no question of Catholic or
Protestant yet. He would have supported her--as indeed he did--however
firm a Protestant she might be; for the next Catholic heir to the
crown, Mary Stuart, was practically a Frenchwoman, married to the heir
of the French throne, and with her as Queen of England and France,
Spain and the house of Burgundy would have been ruined.
Elizabeth knew as well as any one how vital it was for Philip to be
friendly with England; and during a long course of years she traded
unscrupulously upon her knowledge that she might assail, insult,
plunder, and make more or less veiled war upon him, and yet that he
dared not openly break with her whilst France was greedily eyeing his
Flemish harbours. From the first moment that Elizabeth's reform policy
became evident it was seen by Spanish statesmen that either the
government of England must be changed, so as to bring it back to the
old cordial alliance, or else Spain must seek new combinations of
powers, in order to redress the balance. For the first alternative to
be successful promptness was necessary, and the government of the Queen
changed whilst the country was yet unsettled and divided. Feria wrote
from London to Philip only a day or two after Mary's death that {180}
the country must be dealt with sword in hand rather than by cajolery,
unless it were to be allowed to slip through their hands; and
thenceforward for years all of Philip's agents, one after the other,
pressed upon their master the necessity of using force, either by
aiding the Catholics to revolt or by a direct attack on England.
Angry, almost contemptuous, references to the King's hesitancy and
timidity are constantly occurring in the letters of the various Spanish
ambassadors in England, but beyond occasional money aid to the English
Catholics nothing could be obtained from the King.