Though Philip had failed again to secure England as a satellite, the
need for his doing so was as urgent as ever, for the Netherlands were
seething in discontent, the Huguenots in France were being supported for
the time by the Regent Catharine, and it looked as if the stronger coming
combination in Europe would not be Catholic but Protestant. To counteract
this threatening state of affairs it was necessary for Philip to try a
new tack. The massacre of Vassy had precipitated the opening of the first
war of religion in France (March, 1562), and this made it expedient for
him to strengthen the Guises. So a proposal, upon which, when Cardinal
Lorraine had made it a year before, he had looked upon coldly, was now
regarded with favour. This was no less than the marriage of the widowed
Mary Stuart, now in Scotland, and on ill terms with Catharine, with
Philip’s heir, Don Carlos. It was not such a match as the Spanish King in
ordinary circumstances would have considered adequate for his son; but
as Mary was the Catholic heiress of England, and might by a turn of the
wheel become Queen of Britain she was a useful countercheck to Protestant
combinations.
As soon as the project got wind Elizabeth, Catharine de Medici, and the
Scottish Protestants, led by the Earl of Murray, sought an antidote to
the threatened evil. The Darnley match was positively patronised both by
Elizabeth and Catharine, and Lethington posted off to London eager to
negotiate a friendly understanding between England and Scotland before
his Catholic mistress should fall into the marriage net of Spain. But the
war between Catholics and Protestants in France was now blazing fiercely,
and the Guises were fighting for their lives, unable to help their niece
or interfere in any way with Elizabeth’s game in Scotland. This made
her for the time the mistress of the situation, and she could afford to
deal high-handedly with the Queen of Scots, especially after the Duke
of Guise himself had been assassinated before Orleans (February, 1563).
She threw all her power on the Huguenot side in the struggle, allowing
English contingents to join in the fight and subsiding Condé with money.
Mary Stuart’s Protestant advisers had tried hard to negotiate an alliance
between England and Scotland on Protestant lines in conjunction with
the recognition of Mary as Elizabeth’s heiress under the same auspices;
and once more Lethington went to London, in February, 1563, to urge his
point. He found the Queen coolly evasive, for she had nothing to fear
from Mary or her French kinsmen now, and she knew that Philip would
not dare to attack her or interfere forcibly in Scotland whilst the
Protestants in France were in the ascendant.