A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
Here, then, are two examples: in one, the greatest possible frequency of
coincidence, with no instance whatever to the contrary, does not prove
that there is any law; in the other, a much less frequency of
coincidence, even when non-coincidence is still more frequent, does
prove that there is a law. In both cases the principle is the same. In
both we consider the positive frequency of the phenomena themselves, and
how great frequency of coincidence that must of itself bring about,
without supposing any connexion between them, provided there be no
repugnance; provided neither be connected with any cause tending to
frustrate the other. If we find a greater frequency of coincidence than
this, we conclude that there is some connexion; if a less frequency,
that there is some repugnance. In the former case, we conclude that one
of the phenomena can under some circumstances cause the other, or that
there exists something capable of causing them both; in the latter, that
one of them, or some cause which produces one of them, is capable of
counteracting the production of the other. We have thus to deduct from
the observed frequency of coincidence, as much as may be the effect of
chance, that is, of the mere frequency of the phenomena themselves; and
if anything remains, what does remain is the residual fact which proves
the existence of a law.
The frequency of the phenomena can only be ascertained within definite
limits of space and time; depending as it does on the quantity and
distribution of the primeval natural agents, of which we can know
nothing beyond the boundaries of human observation, since no law, no
regularity, can be traced in it, enabling us to infer the unknown from
the known. But for the present purpose this is no disadvantage, the
question being confined within the same limits as the data. The
coincidences occurred in certain places and times, and within those we
can estimate the frequency with which such coincidences would be
produced by chance. If, then, we find from observation that A exists in
one case out of every two, and B in one case out of every three; then if
there be neither connexion nor repugnance between them, or between any
of their causes, the instances in which A and B will both exist, that is
to say will coexist, will be one case in every six. For A exists in
three cases out of six: and B, existing in one case out of every three
without regard to the presence or absence of A, will exist in one case
out of those three. There will therefore be, of the whole number of
cases, two in which A exists without B; one case of B without A; two in
which neither B nor A exists, and one case out of six in which they both
exist. If then, in point of fact, they are found to coexist oftener than
in one case out of six; and, consequently, A does not exist without B so
often as twice in three times, nor B without A so often as once in every
twice; there is some cause in existence which tends to produce a
conjunction between A and B.