On the other hand, various features of what I may call the defensive
alliance portion of the Protocol seem to me to be impossible and at
this time inadvisable. They are supposed to flow logically from the
system of compulsory arbitration; and certainly the problem which they
attempt to solve does follow logically from any system of compulsory
arbitration and outlawry of war. If we assume war to be outlawed and a
system by which there is to be a legal settlement of disputes in place
of war, the question of course arises: Well, what is to happen in a
given case if some State which has accepted this system and has agreed
to it should refuse to abide by it, should not carry out an award or
decision or should even take up arms against it, what then?
The Continental mind very logically answers this question by saying
there must be a system of execution of decrees and that if you outlaw
war, you must have a combination for defence. This is true from the
point of view of logic; but it is not true from the point of view of
life. Compulsory arbitration and outlawry of war are untried ideas,
and we cannot say now, under all circumstances, what should be done in
the course of their working, if they are put to work; much less can
Nations now bind themselves as to a definite and complete course of
action under all possible and varying future circumstances. That such
a system of concerted action against aggression as is proposed by the
Protocol of Geneva may perhaps in time be worked out along with the
growth and development of the ideas of outlawry of {110} war and of
arbitration, may be admitted. That it can be done now is, to my mind,
contrary to the realities of life and to the lessons of history.
There is another phase of this last discussion which should be
particularly noticed. It is impossible for any such agreement for
concerted action not to have a direct bearing upon countries which are
not parties to the agreement; in other words, Russia and the United
States. We must admit at least the theoretic possibility of a conflict
between one of the Members of the League and one of these two Great
Powers, insisting, if we will, that such a possibility is highly remote
so far as the United States is concerned, and utterly unknowable so far
as Russia is concerned; but none the less a possibility.
And certainly, in view of that possibility, any provisions of a
document which looks toward force as a last resort of defence should,
in my judgment, be drawn with the utmost care to avoid the idea of a
possible conflict between the parties to the document on the one hand
and an outside State on the other. Outlawry of war and arbitration are
things to be agreed upon and not to be compelled against those who are
unwilling to agree; for the breach of such an agreement is a much more
serious and a very different thing than a refusal to arbitrate, or even
than going to war when there is no agreement.