A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United StatesJuglar, Clément
History
A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United States
Juglar, Clément
Depressions
We gather the following about discounts from the balance sheets of the
Associated Banks of New York. If we cast our eyes over the balance
sheets of the National Banks of the Union, we must note a falling off of
$100,000,000 in the paper discounted, that is, from $1,300,000,000 to
$1,200,000,000 (1884-1885). After this short period of stoppage, clearly
indicating the necessity for liquidation, discounts resumed their steady
expansion, and rose to $1,470,000,000 in 1886, to $1,587,000,000 in
1887, and finally to $1,684,000,000 in 1888, when we were in the midst
of a period of development and consequently of high prices and of
prosperity; and the same is true in France and England.
The study of a single section of the balance sheets, that of discounts
and loans, has allowed us to follow the periods of prosperity, of panic,
and of liquidation. When we next consider the other sections, we find
the confirmation of our anticipations. Among these sections, in the
order of importance, we notice first, public deposits in the form of
running accounts; they constitute the reverse of the loans and
discounts, whose total is immediately credited to the banks' clients,
and the increase of paper on hand also follows. From 1865 to 1873 the
steady increase was uninterrupted, viz., from $183,000,000 to
$656,000,000; the maximum amount shows itself in the first quarter of
1873, eight months before the maximum of discounts and loans; in 1888
they ran down to $622,000,000; there is, say, a difference of
$300,000,000 between the two totals, and this difference is the same, we
observe, as that between the highest and the lowest of the two sections,
as we notice it in the same year, during the liquidation of the panic of
1873. [Footnote: See table of balance sheets of the Banks of the United
States.]
In the last period the progression is the same; from $598,000,000 the
amount of deposits advanced to $1,350,000,000, whilst discounts and
loans reached $1,684,000,000; that is to say, there was still a
difference of $334,000,000. The relationship of the two sections was
much more marked than in France and in England, where the amounts
carried in accounts current vary more.
In the United States we then experienced a market based on credit,
which, through discounts or loans by the banks, had reached the amount
of the accounts current, and was about to call the clearing house into
action to settle debts everywhere.
The office of the circulation of bank notes, subsequent to the severe
regulations enacted in 1863 for the organization of National Banks, had
varied in the last two periods that we are studying. From 1863 to 1873,
after the war troubles, in proportion as greenbacks were withdrawn, the
bank notes issued by the National Banks not only took their place, but
replaced those of the State Banks, whose position the National Banks had
taken.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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