A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United StatesJuglar, Clément
History
A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United States
Juglar, Clément
Depressions
We observe them rise firstly from $66,000,000 to $341,000,000
(1865-1873) at the sharpest period of the panic. We might even charge
them with causing it, if the disproportion alone of the two sums,
$341,000,000 bank notes compared with $944,000,000 of bills discounted,
did not at once repel this theory. It is only necessary to glance at
this idea to see its falsity.
The maximum circulation of bank notes has here coincided with the panic,
a thing which had not happened either in France or in England for a long
time, and instead of presenting its highest figure during the
liquidation of the panic of 1873, it shows us its lowest figure,
$290,000,000 in 1877. Far indeed from increasing at this time as
happened in Europe, the amount of bank notes in circulation decreased by
means of the ebbs of metallic cash into the coffers of the banks: in
reality the cause was lacking here; the ebb of specie was hardly felt at
all.
With $4,000,000 in 1865, the reserve was poorly provided, increasing to
$48,000,000 in 1870. At the end of the bursting forth of the panic of
1873 it became reduced to $10,000,000, at the worst of the panic to
$16,000,000; then, under the influence of a slight whirl, it rose to
$33,000,000 in 1874, without reaching the highest figure of the
preceding period, but soon the flow reappeared and reduced this metallic
reserve to $8,000,000 in 1875. It was not until after this depression
that the true ebb reappeared, when the circulation of bank notes was at
its lowest figure ($290,000,000).
Whilst the $8,000,000 specie reserve grew successively to $54,000,000,
$79,000,000; $109,000,000, and finally to $128,000,000 in 1878, 1879,
1880, and 1881; that is to say, upon the approach of the panic, the
circulation also expanded from $290,000,000 to its highest figure
$323,000,000 in 1882, the year of the European crash and of the stoppage
of the rise of prices in the United States. As to the minimum amount of
the specie reserve, it is to be noted in 1883, between the critical
years 1882 and 1884.
Metallic reserves are too small in the United States for their
fluctuations to exhibit the same regular course they offer us in Europe;
the least need exhausts them, and the smallest payments fill them to
overflowing. The panic soon brought about a default in payment and a
need of metallic money to re-establish equilibrium, but this remedy, if
it does precede panics, sometimes precedes them by a year, as we have
observed in 1883, and the same irregularity is apparent whether we
observe the banks of the whole United States, or the Associated Banks of
the City of New York.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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