A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United StatesJuglar, Clément
History
A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United States
Juglar, Clément
Depressions
The breaking out of the "World War" in August, 1914, had so flooded our
market with securities held in Europe that the Stock Exchange, following
the continental example, closed from July 31st till November 28th, when
the New York Stock Exchange and other American stock exchanges opened
for restricted business in bonds and on December 15th to unlimited
trading in stocks and bonds. Other kinds of exchanges acted much the
same. This checked business in every direction, despite the great
issuance of temporary Clearing House certificates. In two months the
latter tendency was changed in many quarters.
Then began the "war boom." Gradually it has spread, bringing such
enormous profits in all our lines of business supplying the needs of the
"Great War," that the first twelve months of it showed more than a
billion dollars trade balance in our favor, and that balance then began
increasing on a progressive scale. Money is yet plentiful. All business
is stimulated. Our crops are unexampled in quantity and money value.
Everything points to great prosperity unchecked until the "Great War"
ceases and withdraws the stimulating demand for our supplies.
Then will come a readjustment of our trade. Money will have become
actually or potentially scarce because of the previous vast expansion of
our business, and all the banking power of our country will be requisite
to prevent a crashing panic. The Reserve Banks will have gotten fully to
work by then, it is to be hoped. They will be needed to lead in the
life-saving operations. Such first aid to the injured will obviate such
financial sufferings as the old-time panics presented. They can hardly
be expected to reduce the casualties to the volume of the slow panic in
securities in the year 1913, for the volume of business involved at
present is vastly more swollen and the kind more circumscribed.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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