The term chance implies an inability to find a cause for any particular event. Whenever we trust to luck, we do so through ignorance. In reality every thing in this world is ordered _according to law_, and if we possessed infinite knowledge concerning these laws, then, for us, the word “chance” would have no meaning. One accomplishment of knowledge has been to rationalize superstition and chance. “Not a grain of sand lies upon the beach, but infinite knowledge would account for its lying there; and the cause of every falling leaf is guided by the same principles of mechanics as rule the motions of the heavenly bodies.”――Jevon’s Prin. of Science, vol. I, p. 225. That chance is a literal confession of ignorance, is a wholesome truth for all to bear in mind. If we were not so ignorant of atmospheric conditions, we would never be caught in the rain without an umbrella; if we knew perfectly the laws of mechanics, we would not speed our car and trust to luck that the car would hold together. (2) Chance mathematically considered. The principle of the “calculation of chances” has been discussed elsewhere. It will be sufficient here to illustrate the principle from a mathematical point of view. Suppose that a jeweller desires to dispose of a ten-dollar watch by a raffle. He may place a hundred numbers in a box, one of which corresponds to the number on the watch. My chance of drawing the right number is one out of a hundred and may be expressed by the fraction 1/100. The fact that I may draw the right number on the first trial or on the last trial is immaterial. The real meaning of the ratio “one out of a hundred” is, that in the long run, I shall _lose 99 times_ where I gain but once. This implies, that if I pay 25 cents for each draw, I shall in the end pay 99 times 25 cents for the watch, or I will have paid $24.75 for a ten dollar watch. (3) Chance and gambling. In all forms of gambling no wealth is produced. What one man gains the other man loses. In addition to this the institution which projects the gambling scheme must be supported. In consequence, _more money must be lost than can possibly be gained_. This leads to the conclusion that on the basis of averages he who would gamble must terminate his career “behind the game.” Statistics verify this conclusion. (4) Chance and investments. Interest, which is money paid for the use of money, is high when the demand for money exceeds the supply and low when the supply equals or exceeds the demand. The fact that the supply is short is largely due to the lack of confidence on the part of the investor. This means that he is unwilling to take the risk. Thus the principle: “_High rate of interest, great risk; low rate of interest, little risk._” =7. THE RATIONALIZATION OF POLITICAL AND BUSINESS SOPHISTRIES.=