A companion to Mr. Wells's "Outline of history"Belloc, Hilaire
History
A companion to Mr. Wells's "Outline of history"
Belloc, Hilaire
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George), 1866-1946. Outline of history
The reason is clear. Here are a hundred male land birds compelled by
change of environment to take to the water. Ten of them show an
infinitesimal rudimentary webbing between the toes of their feet, and
that is a first infinitesimal advantage in swimming. Ten hens are of the
same kind. _Left to mere chance_ there is no reason why a season’s
mating should allocate the web-footed male to the web-footed female.
Each one of the ten males has nine chances to one of paring with a
non-advantaged mate, and only one chance of mating with a hen similar to
himself and possessing, as he does, this infinitesimal advantageous
differentiation. On the average you would have only one couple in each
hundred handing on in full even that first tiny advantage to their
progeny with a corresponding tiny survival-value. In the case of
eighteen others it would be halved, and in the case of a hundred and
eighty-one, it would be absent. It is so with each generation. Each
little infinitesimal advantage can only be _fully_ handed on to a
fraction which is the square of the last, and in even _diminished_ form
to a fraction smaller in proportion to the flock in the third generation
than in the second. Long before you got anything like an even
rudimentary webbed foot the tiny advantage would have been absorbed. The
advantage, left to chance, sinks into the common stock.
There is no getting away from this conclusion by saying, “Oh! we’re not
talking of individuals, we’re talking of great masses.” The masses are
made up of individuals, and the mathematical argument is exactly the
same whether you are dealing with a hundred or ten million.
These four _a priori_ arguments against the theory of Natural Selection
as the agent of differentiation in species are as conclusive as
arithmetic can make them, and there is really no need for any
others—though many others have been urged—e.g. the mathematical chances
against one special advantageous variation appearing by pure accident at
exactly the time it was needed.
But, as I have said, apart from these _a priori_ and sufficient
arguments, there are conclusive arguments drawn from actual evidence,
and all this evidence is in favour of this _Fixed Type_. A fixed type
would be an impossibility under Natural Selection: it goes with a
Creator and with Design; and certainly it is true of the real world.
Natural Selection, if it had been the agent of Evolution, would have
prevented the formation of fixed types.
In the old materialist days when Natural Selection was triumphing, its
supporters used to say, as we have seen, that it acted “until
equilibrium was reached by the organism conforming to its environment.”
That was typical of their hiding the weakness of their case under vague
phrases which, closely analysed, proved self-contradictory.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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