A history of economic doctrines : $b from the time of the physiocrats to the present dayGide, Charles
History
A history of economic doctrines : $b from the time of the physiocrats to the present day
Gide, Charles
Economics -- History
Malthus gives us a picture of man at the cross-roads. Straight in front
of him lies the road to misery, on the right the path of virtue, while
on the left is the way of vice. Towards the first man is impelled by a
blind instinct. Malthus warns him to rein in his desires and seek escape
along either by-road, preferably by the path on his right. But he fears
that the number of those who will accept his advice and choose “the
strait road of salvation” will be very small. On the other hand, he is
unwilling to admit, even in the secrecy of his own soul, that most men
will probably follow the road that leads on to vice, and that masses will
rush down the easy slope towards perdition. In any case the prospect is
anything but inviting.
* * * * *
No doctrine ever was so much reviled. Imprecations have been showered
upon it ever since Godwin’s memorable description of it as “that black
and terrible demon that is always ready to stifle the hopes of humanity.”
Critics have declared that all Malthus’s economic predictions have been
falsified by the facts, that morally his doctrines have given rise to the
most repugnant practices, and not a few French writers are prepared to
hold him responsible for the decline in the French birth-rate. What are
we to make of these criticisms?
History certainly has not confirmed his fears. No single country has
shown that it is suffering from over-population. In some cases—that
of France, for example—population has increased only very slightly.
In others the increase has been very considerable, but nowhere has it
outstripped the increase in wealth.
The following table, based upon the decennial censuses, gives the _per
capita_ wealth of the population of the United States, the country from
which Malthus obtained many of his data:
Year Dollars
1850 308
1860 514
1870 780
1880 870
1890 1036
1900 1227
1905 1370
In fifty years the wealth of every inhabitant has more than quadrupled,
although the population in the same interval also shows a fourfold
increase (23 millions to 92 millions).[303]
Great Britain, _i.e._ England and Scotland, at the time Malthus wrote
(1800-5), had a population of 10½ millions. To-day it has a population of
40 millions. Such a figure, had he been able to foresee it, would have
terrified Malthus. But the wealth and prosperity of Great Britain have in
the meantime probably quadrupled also.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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