A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
Crowded trams and trains, with desperate men and weak women fighting
a daily battle for conveyance before all the cheap trips have
been made, inflict a shameful degradation upon the class for which
Parliament makes illusory provision in railway and tramway Acts. As
a consequence of this difficulty, and also because of the early hour
at which the companies are allowed to cease carrying working-folk at
the workmen's fare, many men and women are compelled to waste some
hours of their scanty leisure every day between the arrival of their
trains and the opening of their workshops, a cruelty for which the
blame may be pretty equally apportioned to Parliament and the company
directors. The result of it is that many of the poor prefer the evil
of overcrowding in cities before the greater evil of wasted time
and degrading travel. As time goes on, no doubt the monopolists of
transportation will be compelled, as their own necessities increase
and so bring them under the hand of the legislature, to serve more
adequately the necessities of the majority. But even so, and as
long as the effective speed of conveyance is limited by the lack
of permanent-way space and the necessity for frequent stations,
the impatience even now manifested, and manifested chiefly by the
class which suffers least from loss of time in travel, will lead to
concentration. Taking London as an example, it may be said that the
Victorian age was the age of the suburbs. But few people now live in
the suburbs of London who can afford to live anywhere else. Either
they move right out into the country, seeking a spot on some main
line where the greater distance and less-frequent train service is
made up for by speedy and uninterrupted journeys; or they come into
London and occupy houses or flats within easy reach of their working
head-quarters. The suburbs are given over to those who cannot afford
either of these expedients, or who, having been brought up there,
are retained by a sort of inertia. Ultimately, as the demand for
town space becomes intensified, two things will happen. First of all,
the restrictions which many cities, ignoring the freedom of New York
and Chicago, impose upon the erection of excessively high buildings,
will go by the board. The shutting out of sunlight and fresh air
will be the subject of compensations to be presently explained, and
thirty, forty, fifty or a hundred-storey houses, and houses which
perhaps burrow to some distance underground, will, by virtue of the
same compensations, house a vast, concentrated population impatient
of daily travel. As the demand for homes increases, and even the
high buildings cannot cope with it, the cities will push their way
outwards, repopulating the rebuilt suburbs. This kind of thing will
have a tendency to correct itself. Rents will be high in proportion to
position near the centre. But a limit of toleration will be reached,
and as certain improvements will have been effected in transport,
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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