A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
But the working out of the revelations promised by radiology belongs
rather to this end of the century than to the other. During the
interval there can be no doubt that electricity, already man's chief
handmaid, will have increased and perhaps completed her services
to the race. When, as I ventured to suggest in a former chapter,
inexhaustible and cheap "current" is yielded to us by some method
of utilising the electrical reciprocity of the hydrogen and oxygen
gases derived from water, doubtless all machinery will be electrically
driven, all transport electrically propelled. Perhaps this discovery
lies so far in the foreground of the future as to be irrelevant to any
anticipations of the world's condition a hundred years hence. The
full development of electrically-driven machinery lies in the
middle distance, and the duration of the electrical age can hardly
be precalculated with any greater exactness than the suggestion that
it will probably have reached, or at all events approached, its end
in about a century's time.
The most important problem connected with this subject is to
imagine, if we can, how electrical power will be applied. It is quite
evident that the device of long conductors, either overhead or below
ground--the "live wires" of alarmed America--is too clumsy and too
dangerous to be long tolerated. It is indeed a public scandal that
cables carrying an electrical charge capable of killing or paralysing
at a touch should be suspended over the heads of the citizens, exposed
to momentary breakage by snowfall, high wind, or the inevitable
wear which careless inspectors may overlook: and the mere fact that
a horse can occasionally set foot on a ground plate and fall dead
from the contact shows that even the vaunted "conduit system" must
not be regarded as anything but a strictly-temporary device. Some of
the dangers of the underground electric wires arise out of the use
of our present illuminating gas, when a pipe leaks into a manhole
or inspection chamber, forming an explosive mixture of gas and air,
which presently becomes ignited by an electric spark and blows up the
whole affair. No doubt coal gas is within easily measurable distance
of its end as a convenience of civilisation. But it is extremely
probable that hydrogen and oxygen will be conveyed by mains to houses
and public buildings during a long time: and it is hardly possible
to believe that the mains will not sometimes leak and be capable of
letting out mixtures far more dangerous on ignition than the mixture
of coal gas and air, and still more dangerous because neither of the
gases, nor the mixture of them, has any smell, unless indeed we should
take the precaution of giving them one artificially. Whatever we may
do, and we shall do much, to minimise the dangers of highly-evolved
civilisation, accidents will always occur, and their violence will
probably increase. We must pay our toll to the conveniences of life,
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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