A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
and we shall of course compensate ourselves by a lower death-rate
from diseases, many of which will no doubt in a hundred years' time
have disappeared from the planet.
If we need any motive power other than electricity, or if we need
motive power of some other kind to produce electricity, no doubt
the explosive recombination of oxygen and hydrogen, controlled by
devices developed from existing gas-engines and petrol-engines, will
be a starting-point: because coal will, probably before the complete
exhaustion of the supply of it, have been found altogether too dirty
and unhealthy a thing to use, at all events by way of combustion,
though rumours are heard from time to time of new methods by which
the stored energy of coal may be utilised directly, to the great
economy of the material. [13] In all sorts of ways the early years of
the century will be employing themselves in seeking out new sources
of man's chief necessity--power: and a hundred years hence we shall
have entered upon the full inheritance of them.
But the obtaining of power is only one problem of the mechanician. Of
almost equal, if not quite equal, importance is that of applying power
at the place where it is needed, and the careful reader will not have
overlooked the fact that while we have been discussing the use of
electricity as a source of power we have already been anticipating,
and perhaps anticipating a good deal. For, when we now speak of
machinery and locomotive engines being "driven" by electricity, we
are really only employing a sort of convenient periphrasis. All our
electric machinery, all our electric railways, our "tuppeny" tubes
and the horrible electric trams which make life almost intolerable in
houses along many of the main roads out of London, are really driven by
coal-burning steam engines. In a few places (especially in the Niagara
valley) waterfall power is used. But whatever the real source of power,
electricity is only a means, more or less convenient, of transmitting
it. Even electric launches, and slow-going electric broughams driven
by accumulators, only represent slightly more subtle examples of the
electrical transmission of power. The ultimate source of power is
always either a steam-engine or a waterfall. A few lecture-table toys
and the like are the only existing examples of machinery in which the
actual source of power is electricity. Even here, it may be objected,
the actual source of power is not electricity, but chemical action
in the battery. But no contrivance of man is an ultimate source of
power. Even a steam-engine is only a device for utilising the stored
solar energy of coal. Of course man can no more create power than
he can create matter: the stock of each in the universe is a fixed
quantity. All that we are able to do is to harness to our use a part
of the cosmic store. When I speak of electricity becoming hereafter
a "source" of power, I am merely distinguishing between its use as
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