A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
effect of any scientific discovery can only be measured when we are in
a position to judge of the conditions in which it may be applied, and
the further discoveries which may affect it--a consideration which will
help us against the danger of undue caution in estimating the possible
developments of recent discovery when utilised in the conditions of the
next century and reinforced by inventions and discoveries yet to come.
A like caution will, however, teach us to restrain our expectations
from the new knowledge which radium appears to be gradually unfolding,
not because there is any doubt that radio-activity will ultimately
bring priceless gifts to civilisation, but because in our present
ignorance of all but a few facts concerning it we can form no possible
conjecture as to the lines these gifts will follow. Already we seem
to have seen in some of the radium experiments one "element" turn into
another. If this should develop until we acquire the power which used
to be dreamed of as transmutation, the social and economic upheavals
which would result beggar imagination. [16]
The photographic effect of Röntgen rays has already [17] been
the subject of a suggestion, and even the facts now remotest from
practical use in connection with the rays of various sorts so much
discussed in the scientific newspapers will no doubt be utilised in
a manner or in manners far removed from the limited employment in
therapeutics already found for them.
And indeed medicine, not the most progressive of modern sciences,
will no doubt make vast strides during the period under discussion.
It would be altogether fallacious to forecast the position and
probable achievements of medical science in a century's time on the
line of simple development from the practice of to-day. The changes
will be revolutionary rather than evolutionary. When it is remembered
that only fifty years ago limbs were hacked from the quivering flesh
of the sentient patient, held down by muscular assistants lest the
violent struggles of his agony should embarrass the surgeon, and that
wounds of all sorts festered and decayed until a hospital reeked
with their impurity--in other words, that discoveries so great as
anæsthesia and antisepsis are well within living memory--we need not
hesitate to predict for the present century changes in medical and
surgical science almost inconceivable by the light of our present
attainment. Anæsthetics--of which the local kinds, as cocaine and
eucaine, are of entirely recent use--represent an advance in one
direction. Antiseptic surgery, which is the prevention and correction
of blood and wound-poisoning by chemical disinfectants, represented an
advance of a different kind. But antisepsis is already on the point
of being superseded by the far more rational and scientific method
of asepsis, or the exclusion from open wounds of all the germs which
can set up inflammation and festering. The change is typical.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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