A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
This question of wireless transmission lies within
the province of discovery rather than that of invention. Before it can
receive actuality we have to do more than utilise existing knowledge:
we have to acquire new knowledge.
In the meantime, portable energy will no doubt be achieved in ways
other than electrical. Some very interesting compressed-air tools are
already in limited use. Holes are drilled and rivets driven by little
contrivances which have a store of force within themselves furnished by
compressed air. One of the many uses of the cheap oxygen and hydrogen,
and doubtless of cheaply liquefied gases of high-resisting power, [14]
will no doubt be to work various kinds of machinery. This use of liquid
airs has been much derided, and indeed a good deal of nonsense has been
written as to its possibilities, drawing from a recent and accomplished
writer the remark that "The statements which have sometimes appeared
in the daily papers, announcing impending revolutions in the methods of
obtaining cheap power by the application of liquid air, have originated
from an imperfect comprehension of the problems involved." [15]
In present conditions, and so far as we are able to see at present,
liquefied gases are for a long time not likely to serve any greater
mechanical purpose than that of furnishing a highly portable apparatus
by which great power can be developed for a short time at any required
place. It is easy to believe that it could not be otherwise employed
with any economy, even when discovery has greatly simplified the now
difficult process of liquefaction. But in regard to this matter, and
to almost every other mechanical and engineering improvement suggested
in the present work, it is of the first importance to remember that
the conditions in which the work of the world a hundred years hence
will be done are certain to differ very greatly from anything we know
to-day; and that procedures at present not merely out of proportion,
but in themselves actually chimerical, will become perfectly workable
in the new circumstances of another century. No doubt the problems at
present involved make many of the developments herein suggested almost
laughable to those who examine the subject without imagination. But
what could have been thought of a man who, when Oersted discovered the
influence of a battery current on the compass needle, suggested that
the discovery might, in much less than a hundred years, be practically
developed in such unforeseen ways as to produce locomotive machines
capable of carrying vast weight at a speed of perhaps a hundred
miles an hour? He would have been told that such predictions "could
only have originated from an imperfect comprehension of the problems
involved." But we know that they would have been perfectly sound,
though it would have been difficult to withhold assent from the
derision which instructed hearers would have poured upon them. The
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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