A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
We have here the limits of such an inquiry as the present. Placing
the end of the age of electricity at provisionally about a hundred
years hence (but it is quite conceivable that the rate of progress may
overtake it earlier and shut the door on conjecture) it is possible to
forecast, not indeed with certainty, but with a measure of imaginative
probability, what will happen as the resources of electricity are
developed and the other material amenities of the world are worked
along the line of natural progress. So far as the light of analogy
can point the way the reader is invited on a sort of conjectural
journey. Of the developments of the moral ideas of man likely to
be determined, not so much by the coming change in his material
environment, as by the evolution of inner forces already at work,
I propose to say something at the end of the book. In the meantime,
the probable material changes in the next hundred years (or less,
according to the rate of our progress) in various departments of life
will be the subject of some intermediate conjectures.
CHAPTER II
HOUSING, TRAVEL AND POPULATION QUESTIONS
When every allowance has been made for the material changes which the
progress of this century threatens, it is easy to see that certain
present-day problems will continue to trouble our successors. Some
things which perplex ourselves will, I think, work out their own
remedy. Others will remain the subject of solutions not difficult to
be imagined in advance.
One chief difficulty which will infallibly confront the immediate
future, and even the future that is more remote, arises out of the
simple fact that the race of man tends to increase numerically at
a speed greater than our devices for its accommodation can quite
conveniently cope with. The population of the world not only increases,
but increases at compound interest. Nor is this all. Improved
sanitation, better habits of life, and the progress of medicine,
prolong lives that in the conditions of last century would have been
shortened, and the rate of increase is thus further accelerated,
as individuals who in different conditions would have died, live
on, perhaps reproducing their species, and thus intensifying the
population problem. Against these influences may be set the effect
of the restrictions imposed by some civilised peoples on the birth
rate, which Mr Roosevelt calls "race suicide." These practices,
just now increasingly prevalent, retard the rate of increase, but
do not at present stop our increase: they alleviate, but do not cure
the difficulty of over-population. Artificial physiological checks on
population, if I am right in certain other conjectures to be presently
developed, will not form part of the permanent morality of the new age,
partly because, with more enlightenment, they will be voluntarily
abandoned or superseded, and partly because the necessity for them
will have disappeared, having worked out its own cure.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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