A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
If one wishes to make a life loan it will be observed that the tables of
life annuities give the capital required to constitute a life annuity at
any age, a simple proportion will give the rent which one ought to pay
to the individual from whom the capital is borrowed. From these
principles all the possible kinds of loans may be calculated.
The principles which we have just expounded concerning the benefits and
the losses of institutions may serve to determine the mean result of any
number of observations already made, when one wishes to regard the
deviations of the results corresponding to divers observations. Let us
designate by _x_ the correction of the least result and by _x_ augmented
successively by _q_, _q´_, _q´´_, etc., the corrections of the following
results. Let us name _e_, _e´_, _e´´_, etc., the errors of the
observations whose law of probability we will suppose known. Each
observation being a function of the result, it is easy to see that by
supposing the correction _x_ of this result to be very small, the error
_e_ of the first observation will be equal to the product of _x_ by a
determined coefficient. Likewise the error _e´_ of the second
observation will be the product of the sum _q_ plus _x_, by a determined
coefficient, and so on. The probability of the error _e_ being given by
a known function, it will be expressed by the same function of the first
of the preceding products. The probability of _e´_ will be expressed by
the same function of the second of these products, and so on of the
others. The probability of the simultaneous existence of the errors _e_,
_e´_, _e´´_, etc., will be then proportional to the product of these
divers functions, a product which will be a function of _x_. This being
granted, if one conceives a curve whose abscissa is _x_, and whose
corresponding ordinate is this product, this curve will represent the
probability of the divers values of _x_, whose limits will be determined
by the limits of the errors _e_, _e´_, _e´´_, etc. Now let us designate
by _X_ the abscissa which it is necessary to choose; _X_ diminished by
_x_ will be the error which would be committed if the abscissa _x_ were
the true correction. This error, multiplied by the probability of _x_ or
by the corresponding ordinate of the curve, will be the product of the
loss by its probability, regarding, as one should, this error as a loss
attached to the choice _X_. Multiplying this product by the differential
of _x_ the integral taken from the first extremity of the curve to _X_
will be the disadvantage of _X_ resulting from the values of _x_
inferior to _X_. For the values of _x_ superior to _X_, _x_ less _X_
would be the error of _X_ if _x_ were the true correction; the integral
of the product of _x_ by the corresponding ordinate of the curve and by
the differential of _x_ will be then the disadvantage of _X_ resulting
from the values _x_ superior to _x_, this integral being taken from _x_
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